{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96441839-7419-4c20-84d5-1bf4dbfdb9d7", "symbol": "MTY", "name": "MTY Food Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.821, "architecture_energy": 84.153, "architecture_maturity": 19.027, "architecture_confidence": 88.077, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 8.83, "upward_expansion": 21.02, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 75.92, "downward_expansion": 94.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.680962, 34.915673, 36.610057, 37.46366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.279999, "trend_reference": 38.639885, "distance_from_trend": -0.112834, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.596083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.240139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209542, "excess_performance": -0.329963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112834, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002705, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 31.525713, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.00341, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.022073, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.130744, "worst_return": -0.096471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007077, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.052685, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.155749, "worst_return": -0.102337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015624, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.111694, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.093395, "worst_return": -0.103392, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 32.871017, "volume": 877700, "typical_volume": 278330.0, "trend": 38.937956, "fair_value": 42.928906, "relative_strength": -21.359267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.340093, "energy": 93.167784, "activity_lines": [ 34.005698, 35.961692, 37.337355, 38.082434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.880001, "volume": 449600, "typical_volume": 286530.0, "trend": 38.813029, "fair_value": 42.763138, "relative_strength": -18.072462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.81638, "energy": 87.843415, "activity_lines": [ 33.635997, 35.357956, 36.943865, 37.756114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.279999, "volume": 567700, "typical_volume": 302835.0, "trend": 38.639885, "fair_value": 42.596083, "relative_strength": -19.240139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.820645, "energy": 84.153136, "activity_lines": [ 33.680962, 34.915673, 36.610057, 37.46366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }