{ "ticker": { "uuid": "964c4c9e-308b-444f-a27b-27af336933fe", "symbol": "NNN1", "name": "Tencent Holdings Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.567, "architecture_energy": 12.675, "architecture_maturity": 24.802, "architecture_confidence": 51.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.23, "rotation_up": 37.24, "upward_expansion": 32.8, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 20.02, "downward_expansion": 45.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.1, 51.023636, 50.658578, 51.697894 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 53.5, "trend_reference": 53.908153, "distance_from_trend": -0.007571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.631233, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.305454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09634, "excess_performance": -0.270587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094332, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04343, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055723, "annualized_volatility": 0.319476, "from_high_reference": -0.277072, "from_low_reference": 0.158009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.908153, "fair_value_reference": 49.631233, "structural_low": 46.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041126, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027276, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.203297, "worst_return": -0.117773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044256, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.055814, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.287037, "worst_return": -0.233405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073919, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.054034, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.538815, "worst_return": -0.184154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106306, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.10374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.326953, "energy": 60.353661, "activity_lines": [ 48.779999, 49.180088, 51.067304, 53.385124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.45, "trend": 56.342622, "fair_value": 49.198712, "relative_strength": -36.548783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.122441, "energy": 52.375275, "activity_lines": [ 48.653332, 48.969892, 50.674088, 52.846881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.45, "trend": 55.888708, "fair_value": 49.283767, "relative_strength": -30.820553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.372074, "energy": 38.765218, "activity_lines": [ 49.619999, 49.454097, 50.64108, 52.566712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.0, "trend": 55.36879, "fair_value": 49.37679, "relative_strength": -29.662348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.454122, "energy": 29.640239, "activity_lines": [ 50.259999, 49.825911, 50.583009, 52.283569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 54.847767, "fair_value": 49.433925, "relative_strength": -33.424439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.208286, "energy": 24.223973, "activity_lines": [ 50.066666, 49.721818, 50.304732, 51.87268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 54.361404, "fair_value": 49.526632, "relative_strength": -27.431738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.442742, "energy": 17.258109, "activity_lines": [ 51.206667, 50.369091, 50.439551, 51.753469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 53.908153, "fair_value": 49.631233, "relative_strength": -28.305454, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.567034, "energy": 12.674863, "activity_lines": [ 52.1, 51.023636, 50.658578, 51.697894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }