{ "ticker": { "uuid": "965834ca-2902-4d92-8057-6cd6a740264d", "symbol": "BWF", "name": "BlackWall Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.684, "architecture_energy": 66.668, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.597, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 12.81, "upward_expansion": 11.75, "deceleration": 48.68, "rotation_down": 75.39, "downward_expansion": 87.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1305, 0.134636, 0.141119, 0.147591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.159667, "distance_from_trend": -0.185804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.352495, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.6312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.883233, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.315789, "excess_performance": -0.379495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.6312, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.398832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52928, "relative_activity": 0.352764, "balance": 0.306018, "dry_up": 0.892849, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06213, "annualized_volatility": 0.451259, "from_high_reference": -0.716493, "from_low_reference": 0.04 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.159667, "fair_value_reference": 0.352495, "structural_low": 0.125, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.002471, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.002357, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.28409, "worst_return": -0.197368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002471, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.006461, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.15942, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012291, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.075647, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.032838, "worst_return": -0.288889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 194566.25, "trend": 0.171667, "fair_value": 0.362707, "relative_strength": -37.231732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.445956, "energy": 76.58943, "activity_lines": [ 0.142833, 0.145091, 0.149452, 0.157419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.125, "volume": 344293, "typical_volume": 204260.0, "trend": 0.168333, "fair_value": 0.360071, "relative_strength": -43.584408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.175271, "energy": 93.468681, "activity_lines": [ 0.136333, 0.141136, 0.146714, 0.154409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.125, "volume": 134880, "typical_volume": 183169.5, "trend": 0.165333, "fair_value": 0.357406, "relative_strength": -41.9667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.091353, "energy": 91.189481, "activity_lines": [ 0.1315, 0.137636, 0.144238, 0.151613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.135, "volume": 3744, "typical_volume": 161746.55, "trend": 0.162, "fair_value": 0.354981, "relative_strength": -37.253036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.107938, "energy": 71.336725, "activity_lines": [ 0.131667, 0.1365, 0.142845, 0.149656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 52928, "typical_volume": 150037.95, "trend": 0.159667, "fair_value": 0.352495, "relative_strength": -39.883233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.684119, "energy": 66.667638, "activity_lines": [ 0.1305, 0.134636, 0.141119, 0.147591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }