{ "ticker": { "uuid": "965eabc7-ca3a-4a8c-bccd-a27ba17dfb3a", "symbol": "WSML", "name": "iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.405, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.085, "architecture_energy": 43.412, "architecture_maturity": 48.222, "architecture_confidence": 85.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.81, "rotation_up": 40.51, "upward_expansion": 70.15, "deceleration": 93.71, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 10.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.4244, 10.423455, 10.323495, 10.154125 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.662, "trend_reference": 9.966033, "distance_from_trend": 0.069834, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.98906, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334575, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.811391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093987, "excess_performance": 0.042752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069834, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000999, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038114, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1193747, "relative_activity": 1.011464, "balance": 0.773692, "dry_up": 1.205046, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023123, "annualized_volatility": 0.154695, "from_high_reference": -0.004668, "from_low_reference": 0.290955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.966033, "fair_value_reference": 7.98906, "structural_low": 8.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03466, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.017742, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.114693, "worst_return": -0.073089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069443, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.033433, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.152666, "worst_return": -0.021705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092897, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085164, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.189623, "worst_return": 0.071654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06776, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063946, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024755, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.387, "volume": 421050, "typical_volume": 1079260.95, "trend": 6.415217, "fair_value": 6.549705, "relative_strength": 6.165448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": 2.470369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.01884, "energy": 39.397941, "activity_lines": [ 10.3764, 10.391018, 10.243119, 10.082224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.266, "volume": 1253228, "typical_volume": 1157499.75, "trend": 9.926133, "fair_value": 7.962925, "relative_strength": 0.392628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.545212, "energy": 28.364082, "activity_lines": [ 10.327067, 10.372109, 10.267029, 10.106649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.662, "volume": 1193747, "typical_volume": 1180216.5, "trend": 9.966033, "fair_value": 7.98906, "relative_strength": 3.811391, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.085251, "energy": 43.412365, "activity_lines": [ 10.4244, 10.423455, 10.323495, 10.154125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }