{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96613d8b-6d71-44c9-85d4-94b9935bec97", "symbol": "ALBLD", "name": "Bilendi SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -46.07, "architecture_energy": 43.356, "architecture_maturity": 15.958, "architecture_confidence": 76.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.02, "rotation_up": 16.16, "upward_expansion": 10.62, "deceleration": 57.92, "rotation_down": 68.53, "downward_expansion": 47.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.865333, 14.642909, 14.761381, 14.700731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.1, "trend_reference": 14.743, "distance_from_trend": -0.111443, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.88032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.88614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093426, "excess_performance": -0.146737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111443, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22056, "relative_activity": 1.018574, "balance": 0.525579, "dry_up": 1.069131, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080799, "annualized_volatility": 0.311071, "from_high_reference": -0.425439, "from_low_reference": 0.015504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.743, "fair_value_reference": 16.88032, "structural_low": 12.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.099081, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.097171, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.183644, "worst_return": -0.168981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.190741, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191724, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.308478, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.364276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.301587, "worst_return": -0.315271, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.373016, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.587177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.373016, "worst_return": -0.373016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.229032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013636, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041872, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-06-26", "close": 16.5, "volume": 19938, "typical_volume": 28277.0, "trend": 15.311667, "fair_value": 16.991603, "relative_strength": -9.243459, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.948757, "energy": 41.692793, "activity_lines": [ 15.765333, 15.152, 14.847428, 14.911312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.84, "volume": 2199, "typical_volume": 25453.7, "trend": 15.238, "fair_value": 16.975961, "relative_strength": -13.177681, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.678467, "energy": 55.468035, "activity_lines": [ 15.925333, 15.320727, 14.965286, 14.945398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.88, "volume": 26636, "typical_volume": 22911.8, "trend": 15.210667, "fair_value": 16.964679, "relative_strength": -10.290056, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.718487, "energy": 55.912591, "activity_lines": [ 15.972, 15.486909, 15.077714, 14.986817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.06, "volume": 13448, "typical_volume": 20836.9, "trend": 15.149333, "fair_value": 16.9525, "relative_strength": -14.057665, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.583055, "energy": 38.84304, "activity_lines": [ 15.693333, 15.489818, 15.107619, 14.977097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.16, "volume": 30850, "typical_volume": 21003.65, "trend": 15.024667, "fair_value": 16.932244, "relative_strength": -18.666489, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.966891, "energy": 9.008061, "activity_lines": [ 15.124, 15.311636, 15.047, 14.913269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.5, "volume": 26249, "typical_volume": 21532.5, "trend": 14.869667, "fair_value": 16.907244, "relative_strength": -22.788568, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.065498, "energy": 25.737471, "activity_lines": [ 14.461333, 15.010909, 14.921809, 14.814903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.1, "volume": 22056, "typical_volume": 21653.8, "trend": 14.743, "fair_value": 16.88032, "relative_strength": -25.88614, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.06951, "energy": 43.35585, "activity_lines": [ 13.865333, 14.642909, 14.761381, 14.700731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }