{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96619a79-66d5-4894-bfdf-d748f2c91526", "symbol": "002535", "name": "Linzhou Heavy Machinery Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.537, "architecture_energy": 55.634, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.605, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 28.59, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 47.84, "downward_expansion": 81.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.289333, 2.297636, 2.565667, 2.833742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 3.188667, "distance_from_trend": -0.241062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.871603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.421468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.369792, "excess_performance": -0.377191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.369792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.255601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76954149, "relative_activity": 1.135061, "balance": 0.255601, "dry_up": 1.198938, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120153, "annualized_volatility": 0.420947, "from_high_reference": -0.511111, "from_low_reference": 0.20398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.188667, "fair_value_reference": 3.871603, "structural_low": 2.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.023669, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.035229, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.141892, "worst_return": -0.253776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013415, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046895, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.240625, "worst_return": -0.328571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11109, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.095279, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.506173, "worst_return": -0.191919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.319333, 2.480545, 2.855762, 3.107441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.22, "volume": 86266990, "typical_volume": 65442385.45, "trend": 3.349667, "fair_value": 3.923397, "relative_strength": -39.942641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.740165, "energy": 71.15562, "activity_lines": [ 2.279333, 2.394182, 2.767429, 3.031204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.1, "volume": 93420251, "typical_volume": 66041838.05, "trend": 3.293667, "fair_value": 3.906923, "relative_strength": -42.611376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.437884, "energy": 68.16334, "activity_lines": [ 2.216, 2.310727, 2.675905, 2.950581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.3, "volume": 68498078, "typical_volume": 66981856.6, "trend": 3.237333, "fair_value": 3.888526, "relative_strength": -35.27546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.828642, "energy": 63.060215, "activity_lines": [ 2.236, 2.285636, 2.611571, 2.886473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 76954149, "typical_volume": 67797375.05, "trend": 3.188667, "fair_value": 3.871603, "relative_strength": -34.421468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.537255, "energy": 55.634456, "activity_lines": [ 2.289333, 2.297636, 2.565667, 2.833742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }