{ "ticker": { "uuid": "966324ea-c5d5-410d-aa7b-51fe586ac7aa", "symbol": "FCG", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND NATURAL GAS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.616, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.253, "architecture_energy": 15.111, "architecture_maturity": 23.556, "architecture_confidence": 61.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.21, "rotation_up": 49.76, "upward_expansion": 32.09, "deceleration": 46.63, "rotation_down": 20.3, "downward_expansion": 23.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.629333, 28.047676, 28.395665, 28.62277 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.37, "trend_reference": 28.337584, "distance_from_trend": 0.001144, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.530386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.135308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088534, "excess_performance": -0.037091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088534, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.276053, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4359481, "relative_activity": 0.870032, "balance": 1.276053, "dry_up": 0.68468, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058233, "annualized_volatility": 0.288508, "from_high_reference": -0.141084, "from_low_reference": 0.318693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.337584, "fair_value_reference": 24.530386, "structural_low": 25.47522, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.002412, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011346, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.291748, "worst_return": -0.120293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027974, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065479, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.253199, "worst_return": -0.128559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081174, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.008724, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.619385, "worst_return": -0.149612, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056985, "active": 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"fair_value": 24.402564, "relative_strength": -6.207631, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.780019, "energy": 51.751745, "activity_lines": [ 26.776421, 27.538495, 28.540023, 28.403682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.04, "volume": 2929874, "typical_volume": 5723712.55, "trend": 27.767775, "fair_value": 24.436007, "relative_strength": -0.060241, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.371332, "energy": 37.117438, "activity_lines": [ 27.106492, 27.514629, 28.439933, 28.432263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.13, "volume": 3214657, "typical_volume": 5470838.75, "trend": 27.970901, "fair_value": 24.471438, "relative_strength": 4.282975, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.206495, "energy": 9.434987, "activity_lines": [ 27.839, 27.70196, 28.442533, 28.520148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.35, "volume": 3218929, "typical_volume": 5193391.9, "trend": 28.158464, "fair_value": 24.505422, "relative_strength": 3.78877, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.400843, "energy": 12.40619, "activity_lines": [ 28.484667, 27.956475, 28.465226, 28.609122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.37, "volume": 4359481, "typical_volume": 5010714.4, "trend": 28.337584, "fair_value": 24.530386, "relative_strength": -3.135308, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.253429, "energy": 15.110588, "activity_lines": [ 28.629333, 28.047676, 28.395665, 28.62277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }