{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9667fb10-e0b9-4ea8-a531-d36e12a62c8d", "symbol": "ALECR", "name": "Eurofins-Cerep SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.761, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.359, "architecture_energy": 12.802, "architecture_maturity": 8.196, "architecture_confidence": 66.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.99, "rotation_up": 33.88, "upward_expansion": 35.43, "deceleration": 31.24, "rotation_down": 19.93, "downward_expansion": 41.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 16300.0, 16236.363636, 16115.238095, 16199.139785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16300.0, "trend_reference": 16340.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.002448, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20273.076923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.195978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.567365, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012422, "excess_performance": -0.040889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016058, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.195978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058889, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015003, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.333333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.333333, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029259, "annualized_volatility": 0.409163, "from_high_reference": -0.123656, "from_low_reference": 0.065359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16340.0, "fair_value_reference": 20273.076923, "structural_low": 15300.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.057947, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071044, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.006329, "worst_return": -0.122222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.15, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.205532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115607, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28200.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.25, "trend": 26773.333333, "fair_value": 18447.115385, "relative_strength": 10.513257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.259216, "energy": 49.444949, 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"activity_lines": [ 16140.0, 16083.636364, 16071.904762, 16241.72043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16300.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.95, "trend": 16490.0, "fair_value": 20514.74359, "relative_strength": -6.585336, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.284683, "energy": 16.994878, "activity_lines": [ 16280.0, 16132.727273, 16078.095238, 16226.236559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16300.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.65, "trend": 16440.0, "fair_value": 20432.051282, "relative_strength": -6.658026, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.3979, "energy": 23.194495, "activity_lines": [ 16353.333333, 16174.545455, 16082.380952, 16213.978495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16300.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.65, "trend": 16390.0, "fair_value": 20349.358974, "relative_strength": -7.731192, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.889719, "energy": 16.267717, "activity_lines": [ 16360.0, 16209.090909, 16094.761905, 16204.946237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16300.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.65, "trend": 16340.0, "fair_value": 20273.076923, "relative_strength": -9.567365, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.359254, "energy": 12.802041, "activity_lines": [ 16300.0, 16236.363636, 16115.238095, 16199.139785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }