{ "ticker": { "uuid": "966c5f97-2233-4dcb-8891-267ecb001925", "symbol": "000068", "name": "Shenzhen Huakong Seg Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.375, "architecture_energy": 48.959, "architecture_maturity": 63.288, "architecture_confidence": 83.114, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.69, "rotation_up": 14.74, "upward_expansion": 6.9, "deceleration": 47.98, "rotation_down": 63.3, "downward_expansion": 80.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.752, 2.837091, 3.004095, 3.107677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.86, "trend_reference": 3.235667, "distance_from_trend": -0.116102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.453782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.601315, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180516, "excess_performance": -0.187916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116102, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047012, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180516, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918871, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66090920, "relative_activity": 0.925475, "balance": 0.918871, "dry_up": 0.946616, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108661, "annualized_volatility": 0.378554, "from_high_reference": -0.322275, "from_low_reference": 0.162602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.235667, "fair_value_reference": 3.453782, "structural_low": 2.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.012158, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.04357, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.214789, "worst_return": -0.140845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039323, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.334507, "worst_return": -0.140449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122257, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.014651, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.387324, "worst_return": -0.180516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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2.936667, 3.09, 3.182952, 3.252237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.68, "volume": 69618262, "typical_volume": 72491425.6, "trend": 3.303667, "fair_value": 3.463846, "relative_strength": -23.31497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.217784, "energy": 79.74821, "activity_lines": [ 2.812, 3.001636, 3.12719, 3.210387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.62, "volume": 76769193, "typical_volume": 72312368.2, "trend": 3.275333, "fair_value": 3.461026, "relative_strength": -24.722336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.113259, "energy": 79.605945, "activity_lines": [ 2.719333, 2.913455, 3.070048, 3.16628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.76, "volume": 57924377, "typical_volume": 71792947.55, "trend": 3.253, "fair_value": 3.457821, "relative_strength": -18.876686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.239778, "energy": 72.760538, "activity_lines": [ 2.716667, 2.863091, 3.030667, 3.133032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.86, "volume": 66090920, "typical_volume": 71412979.95, "trend": 3.235667, "fair_value": 3.453782, "relative_strength": -19.601315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.375218, "energy": 48.958658, "activity_lines": [ 2.752, 2.837091, 3.004095, 3.107677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }