{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96711d1b-65a1-4743-b183-4e1fff90cea3", "symbol": "MUST", "name": "COLUMBIA ETF TR I MULTI SECTOR MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 72.803, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.669, "architecture_energy": 34.874, "architecture_maturity": 2.969, "architecture_confidence": 74.606, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.0, "rotation_up": 12.3, "upward_expansion": 4.8, "deceleration": 46.7, "rotation_down": 60.99, "downward_expansion": 73.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.316728, 20.408832, 20.424506, 20.440984 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.37, "trend_reference": 20.478807, "distance_from_trend": -0.005313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.536296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.719829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014436, "excess_performance": -0.14006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042675, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651754, "relative_activity": 1.130444, "balance": 1.081365, "dry_up": 1.227058, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013478, "annualized_volatility": 0.046799, "from_high_reference": -0.023777, "from_low_reference": 0.050647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.478807, "fair_value_reference": 19.536296, "structural_low": 20.029874, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.00349, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -2.2e-05, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.042805, "worst_return": -0.031889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034206, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.018254, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.044596, "worst_return": -0.072135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052931, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.097016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070437, "worst_return": -0.040396, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 20.319006, "volume": 846120, "typical_volume": 538377.4, "trend": 20.49383, "fair_value": 19.504185, "relative_strength": -8.102526, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.931254, "energy": 9.370748, "activity_lines": [ 20.510491, 20.513958, 20.465353, 20.480974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.219305, "volume": 697945, "typical_volume": 551854.55, "trend": 20.488997, "fair_value": 19.513577, "relative_strength": -7.815037, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.610269, "energy": 23.347849, "activity_lines": [ 20.401598, 20.467439, 20.443993, 20.463262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.259185, "volume": 634007, "typical_volume": 565846.1, "trend": 20.485506, "fair_value": 19.524361, "relative_strength": -8.361342, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.358895, "energy": 31.466888, "activity_lines": [ 20.328976, 20.42864, 20.428314, 20.448436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.37, "volume": 651754, "typical_volume": 576546.75, "trend": 20.478807, "fair_value": 19.536296, "relative_strength": -10.719829, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.6689, "energy": 34.874048, "activity_lines": [ 20.316728, 20.408832, 20.424506, 20.440984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }