{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9676a264-cd33-4a8d-92d2-dd3101b7eaeb", "symbol": "IVG", "name": "Iveco Group N.V.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.576, "architecture_energy": 49.287, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 50.598, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.97, "rotation_up": 42.35, "upward_expansion": 67.33, "deceleration": 75.25, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 26.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.906, 13.914636, 13.906765, 13.826763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.89, "trend_reference": 13.697154, "distance_from_trend": 0.014079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.699003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.148029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040225, "excess_performance": -0.130666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432106, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05907, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040225, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.888713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2935335, "relative_activity": 0.5858, "balance": 0.888713, "dry_up": 0.500208, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003046, "annualized_volatility": 0.045504, "from_high_reference": -0.010684, "from_low_reference": 0.090582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.697154, "fair_value_reference": 9.699003, "structural_low": 13.261272, 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"close": 13.92, "volume": 2665988, "typical_volume": 5402527.1, "trend": 13.65569, "fair_value": 9.602178, "relative_strength": -8.321281, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.97586, "energy": 85.088145, "activity_lines": [ 13.935333, 13.927727, 13.895326, 13.798506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.88, "volume": 2479552, "typical_volume": 5206029.3, "trend": 13.676314, "fair_value": 9.649173, "relative_strength": -8.907996, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.297179, "energy": 63.463262, "activity_lines": [ 13.918333, 13.92, 13.901749, 13.812977 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.89, "volume": 2935335, "typical_volume": 5010818.15, "trend": 13.697154, "fair_value": 9.699003, "relative_strength": -11.148029, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.575699, "energy": 49.286864, "activity_lines": [ 13.906, 13.914636, 13.906765, 13.826763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }