{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9679a784-5112-4426-9418-9e73a500708a", "symbol": "RIE", "name": "Riedel Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.523, "architecture_energy": 62.548, "architecture_maturity": 88.61, "architecture_confidence": 90.384, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 27.63, "upward_expansion": 11.97, "deceleration": 59.86, "rotation_down": 54.54, "downward_expansion": 85.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0202, 0.020545, 0.022443, 0.024589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.028167, "distance_from_trend": -0.254438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.077749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.729899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.540083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.463706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.729899, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.629381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1171133, "relative_activity": 1.439253, "balance": 1.629381, "dry_up": 1.632204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095238, "annualized_volatility": 0.694924, "from_high_reference": -0.58, "from_low_reference": 0.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028167, "fair_value_reference": 0.077749, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.390244, "directional_follow_through": 0.341463, "median_excess_return": -0.001388, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.048626, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.116359, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.111845, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, 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"typical_volume": 1097156.2, "trend": 0.029133, "fair_value": 0.081082, "relative_strength": -30.920388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.678009, "energy": 83.287889, "activity_lines": [ 0.0204, 0.021145, 0.023329, 0.025738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 246980, "typical_volume": 1049526.45, "trend": 0.028667, "fair_value": 0.079409, "relative_strength": -38.38375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.082769, "energy": 79.200799, "activity_lines": [ 0.019867, 0.020618, 0.022767, 0.025084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 1171133, "typical_volume": 813709.0, "trend": 0.028167, "fair_value": 0.077749, "relative_strength": -33.540083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.522764, "energy": 62.548146, "activity_lines": [ 0.0202, 0.020545, 0.022443, 0.024589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }