{ "ticker": { "uuid": "967a0eaf-d62e-4feb-94a9-3cafe4748597", "symbol": "IUSG", "name": "ISHARES CORE S&P U.S. GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.856, "architecture_energy": 41.697, "architecture_maturity": 37.999, "architecture_confidence": 53.854, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.15, "rotation_up": 42.37, "upward_expansion": 73.93, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 26.47, "downward_expansion": 5.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 187.481747, 186.443578, 184.93218, 180.349371 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 194.19, "trend_reference": 175.063104, "distance_from_trend": 0.109257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 138.53354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.401754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.058259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172962, "excess_performance": -0.014492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.401754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.360006, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2334726, "relative_activity": 0.698878, "balance": 1.360006, "dry_up": 0.783056, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038094, "annualized_volatility": 0.204075, "from_high_reference": -0.007412, "from_low_reference": 0.31027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.063104, "fair_value_reference": 138.53354, "structural_low": 148.206076, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047908, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003286, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105096, "worst_return": -0.049894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075937, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151014, "worst_return": 0.010521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.167011, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.022504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175753, "worst_return": -0.008303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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171.419345, "fair_value": 135.065823, "relative_strength": -4.58571, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.318033, "energy": 39.125011, "activity_lines": [ 185.122583, 185.401257, 178.825096, 175.070779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 185.3, "volume": 2053376, "typical_volume": 3773375.05, "trend": 171.963016, "fair_value": 135.648321, "relative_strength": -3.504683, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.05719, "energy": 36.878332, "activity_lines": [ 184.862905, 185.557787, 179.992263, 175.966306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 189.39, "volume": 1930527, "typical_volume": 3754721.0, "trend": 172.732006, "fair_value": 136.242291, "relative_strength": -3.051054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.552005, "energy": 46.639749, "activity_lines": [ 186.37206, 186.31286, 181.440916, 177.090627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 183.74, "volume": 2192757, "typical_volume": 3711796.95, "trend": 173.286617, "fair_value": 136.797408, "relative_strength": -1.799382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.491348, "energy": 33.643739, "activity_lines": [ 185.632, 185.840091, 182.23864, 177.80082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 181.6954, "volume": 3505025, "typical_volume": 3617630.4, "trend": 173.678628, "fair_value": 137.33101, "relative_strength": -1.25534, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.06784, "energy": 30.116623, "activity_lines": [ 184.268467, 185.026847, 182.74602, 178.343322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.83, "volume": 2431233, "typical_volume": 3486264.0, "trend": 174.247623, "fair_value": 137.901209, "relative_strength": -0.05479, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.856525, "energy": 26.663555, "activity_lines": [ 184.41544, 184.869952, 183.453839, 179.062766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 194.19, "volume": 2334726, "typical_volume": 3340675.3, "trend": 175.063104, "fair_value": 138.53354, "relative_strength": -0.058259, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.855696, "energy": 41.69671, "activity_lines": [ 187.481747, 186.443578, 184.93218, 180.349371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }