{ "ticker": { "uuid": "967b17e6-2d3e-46b3-887e-c0d52ed7d877", "symbol": "002459", "name": "JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.356, "architecture_energy": 64.401, "architecture_maturity": 69.939, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 24.32, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.78, "rotation_down": 59.25, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.415333, 7.625636, 8.441619, 9.229892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.72, "trend_reference": 10.183333, "distance_from_trend": -0.241899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.037347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.976636, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317418, "excess_performance": -0.324818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450039, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317418, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.502713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235956682, "relative_activity": 0.996083, "balance": 0.502713, "dry_up": 0.915584, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101136, "annualized_volatility": 0.408317, "from_high_reference": -0.503218, "from_low_reference": 0.136966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.183333, "fair_value_reference": 14.037347, "structural_low": 6.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.052696, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.056538, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 0.338933, "worst_return": -0.24406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.206095, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.096915, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.474747, "worst_return": -0.36612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.114891, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.116589, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.17081, "worst_return": -0.501351, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -41.011062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.260895, "energy": 89.499915, "activity_lines": [ 8.022667, 8.453636, 9.417667, 10.060215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.96, "volume": 210348596, "typical_volume": 280635727.8, "trend": 10.588667, "fair_value": 14.533248, "relative_strength": -39.9821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.356521, "energy": 92.074008, "activity_lines": [ 7.612, 8.089091, 9.104095, 9.816839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.02, "volume": 229757878, "typical_volume": 271006208.7, "trend": 10.451333, "fair_value": 14.354559, "relative_strength": -39.014804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.105606, "energy": 82.297997, "activity_lines": [ 7.347333, 7.807818, 8.820714, 9.586602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.51, "volume": 191487364, "typical_volume": 253203179.7, "trend": 10.307667, "fair_value": 14.18897, "relative_strength": -33.062567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.53217, "energy": 66.62597, "activity_lines": [ 7.333333, 7.676545, 8.608714, 9.396839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.72, "volume": 235956682, "typical_volume": 236884543.25, "trend": 10.183333, "fair_value": 14.037347, "relative_strength": -33.976636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.356199, "energy": 64.401494, "activity_lines": [ 7.415333, 7.625636, 8.441619, 9.229892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }