{ "ticker": { "uuid": "967b2c38-66ed-4948-87b7-1fd325c54113", "symbol": "NCEW", "name": "New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.55, "architecture_energy": 13.909, "architecture_maturity": 65.781, "architecture_confidence": 91.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.0, "rotation_up": 19.13, "upward_expansion": 45.92, "deceleration": 87.32, "rotation_down": 27.4, "downward_expansion": 23.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.253333, 16.827636, 17.089051, 15.737298 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.12, "trend_reference": 13.58801, "distance_from_trend": 0.18634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.519031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.532461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 48.41259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.123847, "excess_performance": 0.936394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.464066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.532461, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.484126, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.123847, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.806621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102838, "relative_activity": 4.966724, "balance": 1.806621, "dry_up": 1.691069, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156538, "annualized_volatility": 0.594664, "from_high_reference": -0.226272, "from_low_reference": 4.757143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.58801, "fair_value_reference": 10.519031, "structural_low": 6.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0995, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05731, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 20.0, "volume": 1732659, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 16.16, "volume": 468047, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": 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62.524774, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.964764, "energy": 41.676654, "activity_lines": [ 18.174667, 18.395278, 16.551962, 14.511323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.2, "volume": 12579, "typical_volume": 18681.75, "trend": 12.19001, "fair_value": 10.231911, "relative_strength": 58.64123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.26577, "energy": 27.86454, "activity_lines": [ 17.273333, 18.058731, 16.720532, 14.794419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.1, "volume": 2319, "typical_volume": 16698.15, "trend": 12.585677, "fair_value": 10.314659, "relative_strength": 71.829604, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.234691, "energy": 25.631136, "activity_lines": [ 16.972, 17.882911, 16.935817, 15.111192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.8, "volume": 33573, "typical_volume": 16565.0, "trend": 12.959343, "fair_value": 10.391865, "relative_strength": 68.655799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.498707, "energy": 25.698803, "activity_lines": [ 16.746, 17.637091, 17.08372, 15.383084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.6, "volume": 1327, "typical_volume": 16381.9, "trend": 13.270343, "fair_value": 10.453137, "relative_strength": 53.188223, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.887407, "energy": 20.157977, "activity_lines": [ 16.333333, 17.154, 17.07829, 15.553449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.12, "volume": 102838, "typical_volume": 20705.4, "trend": 13.58801, "fair_value": 10.519031, "relative_strength": 48.41259, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.550146, "energy": 13.908693, "activity_lines": [ 16.253333, 16.827636, 17.089051, 15.737298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }