{ "ticker": { "uuid": "967c7701-6b1c-496f-a7d7-8a6ed21642c4", "symbol": "MEME-B", "name": "Manulife Multifactor Emerging Markets Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.904, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.332, "architecture_energy": 25.382, "architecture_maturity": 65.572, "architecture_confidence": 82.208, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.09, "rotation_up": 24.29, "upward_expansion": 57.09, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 35.66, "downward_expansion": 18.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.033334, 43.701115, 43.54916, 42.588627 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.720001, "trend_reference": 41.356659, "distance_from_trend": 0.057145, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.617235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.623724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117587, "excess_performance": -0.002834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057145, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067084, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080284, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006237, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092279, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.744169, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1007, "relative_activity": 0.489607, "balance": 0.744169, "dry_up": 0.475507, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040584, "annualized_volatility": 0.247208, "from_high_reference": -0.069668, "from_low_reference": 0.345712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.356659, "fair_value_reference": 31.617235, "structural_low": 36.639999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006091, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.020663, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.110003, "worst_return": -0.031229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034695, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014551, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.226568, "worst_return": -0.011877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057432, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013834, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25201, "worst_return": 0.014619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012242, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.181504, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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64.663662, "activity_lines": [ 45.148125, 44.729908, 43.250536, 42.085909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.330002, "volume": 1387, "typical_volume": 2833.15, "trend": 40.742069, "fair_value": 31.274743, "relative_strength": 0.673402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.256143, "energy": 37.463862, "activity_lines": [ 44.158917, 44.358821, 43.304347, 42.202802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.490002, "volume": 1209, "typical_volume": 2298.65, "trend": 40.970326, "fair_value": 31.381291, "relative_strength": 0.710846, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.092327, "energy": 24.969004, "activity_lines": [ 43.387562, 44.045614, 43.366634, 42.315572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.639999, "volume": 309, "typical_volume": 2062.05, "trend": 41.157326, "fair_value": 31.495711, "relative_strength": 1.410163, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.30962, "energy": 26.538037, "activity_lines": [ 42.935334, 43.776164, 43.418873, 42.423293 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.720001, "volume": 1007, "typical_volume": 2056.75, "trend": 41.356659, "fair_value": 31.617235, "relative_strength": 0.623724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.332439, "energy": 25.381546, "activity_lines": [ 43.033334, 43.701115, 43.54916, 42.588627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }