{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96816613-ff88-425e-861a-ada9e288417a", "symbol": "KSN", "name": "Kingston Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.673, "architecture_energy": 68.256, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 29.45, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.5, "rotation_down": 59.66, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.033867, 0.035391, 0.051907, 0.063782 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.033, "trend_reference": 0.079683, "distance_from_trend": -0.585861, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.092118, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.641764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.894814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.67, "excess_performance": -0.733706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.585861, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25657, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.641764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.572051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.688948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.67, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6872706, "relative_activity": 1.111754, "balance": 0.273399, "dry_up": 1.230748, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.240093, "annualized_volatility": 1.142192, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 0.03125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.079683, "fair_value_reference": 0.092118, "structural_low": 0.032, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": 0.002823, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.184211, "worst_return": -0.597701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.039134, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088743, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.513158, "worst_return": -0.560241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.0446, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": -0.708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.034, "volume": 7586933, "typical_volume": 11257986.4, "trend": 0.089033, "fair_value": 0.093022, "relative_strength": -68.132542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.321886, "energy": 89.808658, "activity_lines": [ 0.0345, 0.044655, 0.062519, 0.07382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 7236105, "typical_volume": 6765485.05, "trend": 0.085817, "fair_value": 0.092721, "relative_strength": -65.505091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.414001, "energy": 82.910279, "activity_lines": [ 0.034933, 0.040955, 0.058836, 0.070399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.033, "volume": 8737504, "typical_volume": 6565391.1, "trend": 0.08275, "fair_value": 0.092426, "relative_strength": -68.493488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.459071, "energy": 69.478657, "activity_lines": [ 0.0344, 0.037673, 0.055219, 0.066991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.033, "volume": 6872706, "typical_volume": 6181858.65, "trend": 0.079683, "fair_value": 0.092118, "relative_strength": -68.894814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.672506, "energy": 68.256361, "activity_lines": [ 0.033867, 0.035391, 0.051907, 0.063782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }