{ "ticker": { "uuid": "968695ae-76c3-4bd1-a021-d450a6a92a66", "symbol": "CULP", "name": "Culp, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.82, "architecture_energy": 45.059, "architecture_maturity": 11.294, "architecture_confidence": 43.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.03, "rotation_up": 56.15, "upward_expansion": 54.33, "deceleration": 28.28, "rotation_down": 19.67, "downward_expansion": 17.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.506, 3.420909, 3.312095, 3.256022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.48, "trend_reference": 3.264, "distance_from_trend": 0.066176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.522147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.230454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.440719, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008547, "excess_performance": -0.196001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066176, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.230454, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.277853, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72125, "relative_activity": 0.452143, "balance": 1.277853, "dry_up": 0.675582, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10353, "annualized_volatility": 0.463247, "from_high_reference": -0.274985, "from_low_reference": 0.288889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.264, "fair_value_reference": 4.522147, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028549, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032938, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.334021, "worst_return": -0.097466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.077973, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121032, "worst_return": -0.035273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134039, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.291744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055556, "worst_return": -0.140351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136187, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, 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"volume": 91329, "typical_volume": 174378.1, "trend": 3.254667, "fair_value": 4.574519, "relative_strength": -24.705944, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.136676, "energy": 11.207612, "activity_lines": [ 3.236667, 3.197455, 3.155048, 3.18086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.7, "volume": 247082, "typical_volume": 180322.5, "trend": 3.262667, "fair_value": 4.563109, "relative_strength": -8.94888, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.506318, "energy": 38.984566, "activity_lines": [ 3.402, 3.287091, 3.211476, 3.209591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.55, "volume": 71833, "typical_volume": 179051.25, "trend": 3.264333, "fair_value": 4.549904, "relative_strength": -10.448882, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.464058, "energy": 45.068453, "activity_lines": [ 3.476667, 3.347818, 3.251238, 3.228129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.48, "volume": 40030, "typical_volume": 170897.55, "trend": 3.263333, "fair_value": 4.535865, "relative_strength": -11.916343, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.738237, "energy": 43.001937, "activity_lines": [ 3.504667, 3.388364, 3.282905, 3.242043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.48, "volume": 72125, "typical_volume": 159518.1, "trend": 3.264, "fair_value": 4.522147, "relative_strength": -15.440719, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.82043, "energy": 45.059418, "activity_lines": [ 3.506, 3.420909, 3.312095, 3.256022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }