{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96975a42-1902-4fa6-9304-9e79e9f0a2a9", "symbol": "SCITY", "name": "Amundi MSCI Smart Cities UCITS ETF ACC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.883, "architecture_energy": 31.517, "architecture_maturity": 68.77, "architecture_confidence": 86.872, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.68, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 59.53, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 34.19, "downward_expansion": 20.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.596002, 83.815092, 83.144238, 80.527248 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.620003, "trend_reference": 77.129, "distance_from_trend": 0.097123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.804808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.636209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.207305, "excess_performance": 0.036413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006362, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.207305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.855879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1322, "relative_activity": 0.437872, "balance": 1.855879, "dry_up": 1.545054, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036171, "annualized_volatility": 0.202028, "from_high_reference": -0.049534, "from_low_reference": 0.35457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.129, "fair_value_reference": 61.804808, "structural_low": 65.639999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012861, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010368, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.107065, "worst_return": -0.017721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038371, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247788, "worst_return": 0.003674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.110774, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018977, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253515, "worst_return": -0.031968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132823, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02314, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 81.379997, "volume": 7022, "typical_volume": 2701.95, "trend": 75.665999, "fair_value": 61.292692, "relative_strength": 0.360907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.669252, "energy": 49.977093, "activity_lines": [ 84.734666, 85.266363, 82.257619, 79.330967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.160004, "volume": 7741, "typical_volume": 2923.7, "trend": 76.176666, "fair_value": 61.45891, "relative_strength": 1.410901, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.211945, "energy": 36.192012, "activity_lines": [ 83.535334, 84.744909, 82.590524, 79.749935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.220001, "volume": 2574, "typical_volume": 3018.2, "trend": 76.615, "fair_value": 61.617756, "relative_strength": -1.680666, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.451092, "energy": 31.232977, "activity_lines": [ 82.139334, 83.844728, 82.685048, 80.010796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.620003, "volume": 1322, "typical_volume": 3019.15, "trend": 77.129, "fair_value": 61.804808, "relative_strength": 0.636209, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.88347, "energy": 31.516761, "activity_lines": [ 82.596002, 83.815092, 83.144238, 80.527248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }