{ "ticker": { "uuid": "969d4c9b-1502-4733-a87c-a99d6ab3b34d", "symbol": "300031", "name": "Wuxi Boton Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.852, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.851, "architecture_energy": 45.317, "architecture_maturity": 11.733, "architecture_confidence": 76.264, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.73, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 20.72, "deceleration": 55.94, "rotation_down": 69.3, "downward_expansion": 48.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.071333, 22.212192, 23.180707, 23.000815 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.879999, "trend_reference": 22.950936, "distance_from_trend": -0.046662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.457872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069515, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.323951, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054042, "excess_performance": -0.061442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09324, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.936007, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123964983, "relative_activity": 1.668063, "balance": 0.936007, "dry_up": 1.497225, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144742, "annualized_volatility": 0.623662, "from_high_reference": -0.305031, "from_low_reference": 0.243889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.950936, "fair_value_reference": 20.457872, "structural_low": 17.59, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.059954, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.004229, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.044179, "worst_return": -0.238427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043489, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.022342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066079, "worst_return": -0.231809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033836, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.42147, "worst_return": -0.186701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085356, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121835, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040954, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.984057, "energy": 11.099685, "activity_lines": [ 23.582389, 24.806847, 24.141489, 23.649018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.99, "volume": 112618185, "typical_volume": 67759926.95, "trend": 23.078936, "fair_value": 20.47638, "relative_strength": -23.821015, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.599448, "energy": 40.684929, "activity_lines": [ 21.040627, 23.519896, 23.641117, 23.313603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.33, "volume": 91581175, "typical_volume": 70225707.3, "trend": 22.979269, "fair_value": 20.45409, "relative_strength": -16.224492, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.359806, "energy": 42.908919, "activity_lines": [ 19.78, 22.57736, 23.283745, 23.071736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.879999, "volume": 123964983, "typical_volume": 74316741.7, "trend": 22.950936, "fair_value": 20.457872, "relative_strength": -9.323951, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.850991, "energy": 45.317295, "activity_lines": [ 20.071333, 22.212192, 23.180707, 23.000815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }