{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96a4754e-8262-4c78-94d3-f89759c22756", "symbol": "FMQQ", "name": "THE NEXT FRONTIER INTERNET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.484, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.058, "architecture_energy": 56.414, "architecture_maturity": 5.55, "architecture_confidence": 55.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.32, "rotation_up": 69.95, "upward_expansion": 60.67, "deceleration": 22.73, "rotation_down": 17.32, "downward_expansion": 19.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.35206, 12.148185, 11.915754, 11.895642 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.6, "trend_reference": 12.064673, "distance_from_trend": 0.044371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.601372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.730496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039268, "excess_performance": -0.164893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044371, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091307, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.602286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131136, "relative_activity": 3.289114, "balance": 1.602286, "dry_up": 2.082371, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035411, "annualized_volatility": 0.248254, "from_high_reference": -0.199689, "from_low_reference": 0.168831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.064673, "fair_value_reference": 12.601372, "structural_low": 10.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02825, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00636, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059476, "worst_return": 0.014545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.061605, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0791, "worst_return": 0.044111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.082738, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11553, "worst_return": 0.049945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 22.91153, "activity_lines": [ 12.06828, 11.810584, 11.723747, 11.861287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.9082, "volume": 72419, "typical_volume": 35519.8, "trend": 12.15624, "fair_value": 12.584239, "relative_strength": -16.711142, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.329492, "energy": 22.803881, "activity_lines": [ 12.04976, 11.860451, 11.749018, 11.841097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5108, "volume": 63499, "typical_volume": 36213.65, "trend": 12.109107, "fair_value": 12.592086, "relative_strength": -12.916874, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.393466, "energy": 48.947111, "activity_lines": [ 12.215013, 12.006289, 11.831117, 11.863972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.6, "volume": 131136, "typical_volume": 39869.7, "trend": 12.064673, "fair_value": 12.601372, "relative_strength": -14.730496, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.058247, "energy": 56.413508, "activity_lines": [ 12.35206, 12.148185, 11.915754, 11.895642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }