{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96a488c1-d97d-4baa-ad6f-29c42612abf4", "symbol": "1813", "name": "Polylite Taiwan Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.335, "architecture_energy": 63.211, "architecture_maturity": 38.715, "architecture_confidence": 92.576, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 18.94, "upward_expansion": 12.83, "deceleration": 40.9, "rotation_down": 63.71, "downward_expansion": 88.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.626667, 11.756364, 11.93881, 12.225484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.55, "trend_reference": 12.608333, "distance_from_trend": -0.083939, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.728733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.797608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144444, "excess_performance": -0.585816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031494, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0385, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.058959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85322, "relative_activity": 0.534942, "balance": 1.058959, "dry_up": 0.496471, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039294, "annualized_volatility": 0.1097, "from_high_reference": -0.211604, "from_low_reference": 0.03125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.608333, "fair_value_reference": 16.728733, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.016463, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.021392, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.078125, "worst_return": -0.133721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044286, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.130579, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.071247, "worst_return": -0.150289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068027, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.087194, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.24031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.430765, "energy": 37.582494, "activity_lines": [ 11.983333, 11.989091, 12.239762, 12.511613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.8, "volume": 68050, "typical_volume": 167580.1, "trend": 12.768333, "fair_value": 16.868657, "relative_strength": -36.674033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.666443, "energy": 43.747301, "activity_lines": [ 11.926667, 11.948182, 12.167857, 12.446774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.7, "volume": 87150, "typical_volume": 162379.9, "trend": 12.728333, "fair_value": 16.821138, "relative_strength": -35.345567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.707616, "energy": 45.898487, "activity_lines": [ 11.84, 11.896364, 12.094048, 12.377849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 76222, "typical_volume": 158786.25, "trend": 12.683333, "fair_value": 16.774166, "relative_strength": -36.954605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.817552, "energy": 59.168989, "activity_lines": [ 11.706667, 11.816364, 12.009524, 12.298602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.55, "volume": 85322, "typical_volume": 159497.7, "trend": 12.608333, "fair_value": 16.728733, "relative_strength": -37.797608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.335209, "energy": 63.211495, "activity_lines": [ 11.626667, 11.756364, 11.93881, 12.225484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }