{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96b15163-8acd-4dd8-833c-5220b2209ab6", "symbol": "7262", "name": "CSOP Leveraged and Inverse Series - CSOP Nikkei 225 Daily (2x) Leveraged Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.552, "architecture_energy": 25.861, "architecture_maturity": 69.809, "architecture_confidence": 89.155, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.15, "rotation_up": 20.68, "upward_expansion": 54.76, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.79, "downward_expansion": 20.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.249999, 184.605455, 181.901191, 172.380645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 181.949997, "trend_reference": 160.293333, "distance_from_trend": 0.135106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.560789, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.756939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.091092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.368045, "excess_performance": 0.401626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.756939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.310911, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.368045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25365, "relative_activity": 0.375996, "balance": 0.364002, "dry_up": 2.26698, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106982, "annualized_volatility": 0.564713, "from_high_reference": -0.176697, "from_low_reference": 1.130562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 160.293333, "fair_value_reference": 103.560789, "structural_low": 113.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.115013, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.276841, "worst_return": 0.034805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.368196, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.423724, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.68079, "worst_return": 0.055603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.590407, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.638862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.590407, "worst_return": 0.590407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128138, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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192.93091, 179.689762, 168.80129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 173.0, "volume": 33283, "typical_volume": 53857.35, "trend": 156.543333, "fair_value": 102.267678, "relative_strength": 31.381415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.941806, "energy": 24.057964, "activity_lines": [ 183.033334, 189.851819, 180.426191, 169.986129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.0, "volume": 476852, "typical_volume": 71168.8, "trend": 158.291666, "fair_value": 102.867079, "relative_strength": 23.032983, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.745884, "energy": 25.812008, "activity_lines": [ 176.506667, 186.114546, 180.703334, 170.854301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 181.949997, "volume": 25365, "typical_volume": 67460.9, "trend": 160.293333, "fair_value": 103.560789, "relative_strength": 31.091092, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.551773, "energy": 25.860744, "activity_lines": [ 176.249999, 184.605455, 181.901191, 172.380645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }