{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96b2339c-a908-434a-b26b-022fe6bcf64f", "symbol": "EPRX", "name": "Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.345, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.177, "architecture_energy": 29.022, "architecture_maturity": 24.973, "architecture_confidence": 81.164, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.88, "rotation_up": 20.17, "upward_expansion": 2.77, "deceleration": 51.8, "rotation_down": 40.14, "downward_expansion": 69.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.058667, 9.098364, 9.273952, 9.534946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.46, "trend_reference": 10.040667, "distance_from_trend": -0.057831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.529423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.448826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.975004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17452, "excess_performance": -0.294941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.448826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.10927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199000, "relative_activity": 0.969833, "balance": 1.10927, "dry_up": 1.371777, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099284, "annualized_volatility": 0.438776, "from_high_reference": -0.264386, "from_low_reference": 0.363112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.040667, "fair_value_reference": 6.529423, "structural_low": 8.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.037189, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.042774, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.369811, "worst_return": -0.122353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013632, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.297688, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.14, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.25072, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.192941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105906, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270531, 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"fair_value": 6.492436, "relative_strength": -7.592213, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.958053, "energy": 19.912388, "activity_lines": [ 9.342, 9.261636, 9.50519, 9.840452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.27, "volume": 294000, "typical_volume": 243520.0, "trend": 10.21, "fair_value": 6.503205, "relative_strength": -9.337503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.893636, "energy": 17.067802, "activity_lines": [ 9.373333, 9.243636, 9.460286, 9.780151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.22, "volume": 337700, "typical_volume": 211220.0, "trend": 10.15, "fair_value": 6.507436, "relative_strength": -19.620896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.85776, "energy": 34.371328, "activity_lines": [ 9.0, 9.053636, 9.324286, 9.651763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.98, "volume": 295200, "typical_volume": 216420.0, "trend": 10.100667, "fair_value": 6.517115, "relative_strength": -11.738966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.779526, "energy": 31.121253, "activity_lines": [ 8.936, 9.025818, 9.273476, 9.57628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.46, "volume": 199000, "typical_volume": 205190.0, "trend": 10.040667, "fair_value": 6.529423, "relative_strength": -9.975004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.177052, "energy": 29.021522, "activity_lines": [ 9.058667, 9.098364, 9.273952, 9.534946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }