{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96b3e012-ab0c-47fe-851f-3b33efa87183", "symbol": "AEHR", "name": "Aehr Test Systems", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.449, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.616, "architecture_energy": 18.226, "architecture_maturity": 48.8, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.55, "rotation_up": 32.12, "upward_expansion": 57.49, "deceleration": 88.64, "rotation_down": 29.38, "downward_expansion": 19.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.595333, 86.224727, 88.921, 80.670323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 103.07, "trend_reference": 67.191667, "distance_from_trend": 0.53397, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.792019, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.708619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 91.873279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.905646, "excess_performance": 2.718192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.53397, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.495619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.708619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.386475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.918733, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.898153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.905646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.981806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10907816, "relative_activity": 0.780178, "balance": 1.981806, "dry_up": 1.218693, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.264084, "annualized_volatility": 1.068094, "from_high_reference": -0.18599, "from_low_reference": 5.29243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.191667, "fair_value_reference": 27.792019, "structural_low": 25.5802, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.000224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011821, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.570364, "worst_return": -0.246737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013467, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003289, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": -0.533695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.836622, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.674072, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.580993, "worst_return": -0.456902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.23978, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.736422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.830392, "energy": 21.958399, "activity_lines": [ 80.296667, 88.376909, 86.92681, 76.079785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.32, "volume": 15991987, "typical_volume": 13562336.95, "trend": 62.706, "fair_value": 27.22984, "relative_strength": 58.177635, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.259733, "energy": 16.85224, "activity_lines": [ 77.022, 85.444364, 86.825714, 77.076086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.98, "volume": 12300897, "typical_volume": 13763286.3, "trend": 64.633333, "fair_value": 27.424199, "relative_strength": 61.09076, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.665107, "energy": 12.759692, "activity_lines": [ 77.566, 83.598727, 86.879333, 78.190538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.07, "volume": 10907816, "typical_volume": 13981182.25, "trend": 67.191667, "fair_value": 27.792019, "relative_strength": 91.873279, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.615748, "energy": 18.225921, "activity_lines": [ 86.595333, 86.224727, 88.921, 80.670323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }