{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96b988b3-f693-42a1-8a48-cfcff6803152", "symbol": "XZWE", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World ESG UCITS ETF 2C - EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.661, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.372, "architecture_energy": 61.941, "architecture_maturity": 43.693, "architecture_confidence": 80.294, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 58.58, "upward_expansion": 82.56, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 25.8, "downward_expansion": 9.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.277334, 87.713091, 86.890857, 85.391226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 91.290001, "trend_reference": 83.924667, "distance_from_trend": 0.087761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.715898, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.042061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112614, "excess_performance": -0.058278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27294, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.420435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3624, "relative_activity": 0.189268, "balance": 3.420435, "dry_up": 0.846847, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018681, "annualized_volatility": 0.14869, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.226027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.924667, "fair_value_reference": 71.715898, "structural_low": 74.459999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.010657, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.003399, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.072464, "worst_return": -0.085864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043422, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.012625, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.111655, "worst_return": -0.053599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08589, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.01124, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.212864, "worst_return": -0.026293, "sufficient": 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"close": 87.120003, "volume": 14130, "typical_volume": 21715.2, "trend": 83.685, "fair_value": 71.484551, "relative_strength": -6.848132, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.705749, "energy": 38.584604, "activity_lines": [ 86.876666, 86.941454, 86.243857, 84.90058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.290001, "volume": 3624, "typical_volume": 19147.5, "trend": 83.924667, "fair_value": 71.715898, "relative_strength": -5.042061, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.37187, "energy": 61.940695, "activity_lines": [ 88.277334, 87.713091, 86.890857, 85.391226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }