{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96c5b245-2ef9-4414-9695-dcd1d1455d29", "symbol": "5703", "name": "The Landis Taipei Hotel Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.636, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.102, "architecture_energy": 6.006, "architecture_maturity": 8.067, "architecture_confidence": 72.768, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.29, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 31.24, "deceleration": 36.9, "rotation_down": 25.01, "downward_expansion": 44.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.163333, 14.030909, 14.013571, 14.044516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.6, "trend_reference": 14.165, "distance_from_trend": 0.030709, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.63141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.914296, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020134, "excess_performance": -0.461506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030709, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216377, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079595, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.57075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67000, "relative_activity": 1.455286, "balance": 1.57075, "dry_up": 1.027106, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051897, "annualized_volatility": 0.200965, "from_high_reference": -0.141176, "from_low_reference": 0.118774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.165, "fair_value_reference": 18.63141, "structural_low": 13.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01108, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.01726, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.183824, "worst_return": -0.098039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.08027, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033954, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.171908, "worst_return": -0.148594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096386, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.137464, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.269939, "worst_return": -0.193333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.235542, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.394458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411043, "worst_return": -0.390593, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104418, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040724, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099788, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.239554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028169, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 24.25, "volume": 414000, "typical_volume": 1437200.0, "trend": 24.691667, "fair_value": 22.693269, "relative_strength": 4.968149, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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13.916364, 13.977619, 14.084624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.85, "volume": 64148, "typical_volume": 43948.65, "trend": 14.25, "fair_value": 18.872436, "relative_strength": -33.40797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.410405, "energy": 16.566342, "activity_lines": [ 13.906667, 13.903636, 13.962381, 14.056344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.65, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 42898.6, "trend": 14.205, "fair_value": 18.775641, "relative_strength": -32.469717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.471703, "energy": 22.348035, "activity_lines": [ 13.83, 13.857273, 13.930476, 14.017634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2, "volume": 28000, "typical_volume": 43339.05, "trend": 14.178333, "fair_value": 18.697436, "relative_strength": -30.461865, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.011159, "energy": 10.229772, "activity_lines": [ 13.943333, 13.910909, 13.95381, 14.017312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.6, "volume": 67000, "typical_volume": 46039.05, "trend": 14.165, "fair_value": 18.63141, "relative_strength": -29.914296, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.102129, "energy": 6.005814, "activity_lines": [ 14.163333, 14.030909, 14.013571, 14.044516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }