{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96cbc10a-2574-400b-8da1-c93f384ffc03", "symbol": "TKN", "name": "Ninepoint Crypto and AI Leaders ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.82, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.13, "architecture_energy": 17.727, "architecture_maturity": 40.744, "architecture_confidence": 60.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.79, "rotation_up": 14.87, "upward_expansion": 37.05, "deceleration": 83.1, "rotation_down": 43.2, "downward_expansion": 40.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.085333, 25.579637, 25.928333, 25.388301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.9, "trend_reference": 24.987667, "distance_from_trend": -0.003508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.458782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160364, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.364973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102746, "excess_performance": -0.017675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.068182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600, "relative_activity": 0.638723, "balance": 5.068182, "dry_up": 0.429142, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060519, "annualized_volatility": 0.336061, "from_high_reference": -0.256716, "from_low_reference": 0.222986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.987667, "fair_value_reference": 21.458782, "structural_low": 20.360001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025974, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.027476, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.29107, "worst_return": -0.183883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004467, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023112, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.248125, "worst_return": -0.217029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.205317, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.13232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234891, "worst_return": -0.085145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.451126, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.307382, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.746789, "worst_return": 0.155462, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.384388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04652, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006385, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.48, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 21235.0, "trend": 10.776, "fair_value": 13.309248, "relative_strength": 12.508259, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"activity_lines": [ 24.682666, 23.66, 23.686, 24.517828 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 27.16, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 9040.0, "trend": 25.806333, "fair_value": 20.21859, "relative_strength": -8.61977, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 27.091175, "energy": 43.324484, "activity_lines": [ 25.709333, 24.404363, 23.952095, 24.592559 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 27.73, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 9390.0, "trend": 25.713333, "fair_value": 20.326795, "relative_strength": -5.895155, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.030975, "energy": 69.57342, "activity_lines": [ 26.544666, 25.170363, 24.268143, 24.716667 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 27.17, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 9000.0, "trend": 25.557, "fair_value": 20.431346, "relative_strength": -9.268974, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value 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"relative_strength": -11.320076, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.789698, "energy": 33.482569, "activity_lines": [ 26.75, 26.582545, 25.165905, 25.058581 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 28.1, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 5190.0, "trend": 25.340667, "fair_value": 20.848718, "relative_strength": -6.847522, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.43203, "energy": 39.151544, "activity_lines": [ 27.114667, 26.943455, 25.528238, 25.242882 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 4260.0, "trend": 25.29, "fair_value": 20.94141, "relative_strength": -13.398694, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.024092, "energy": 18.538346, "activity_lines": [ 26.768, 26.844182, 25.684286, 25.288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.030001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4135.0, "trend": 25.237667, "fair_value": 21.032436, "relative_strength": -13.755853, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.344262, "energy": 28.673986, "activity_lines": [ 26.493334, 26.729819, 25.822905, 25.335742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.440001, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 4000.0, "trend": 25.204, "fair_value": 21.12109, "relative_strength": -12.113142, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.891657, "energy": 26.475403, "activity_lines": [ 26.494001, 26.675091, 25.983, 25.413312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.059999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 3535.0, "trend": 25.164333, "fair_value": 21.203269, "relative_strength": -15.997982, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.313901, "energy": 20.065226, "activity_lines": [ 25.955334, 26.344182, 25.991286, 25.404022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.74, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 2780.0, "trend": 25.142, "fair_value": 21.290064, "relative_strength": -13.388697, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.859248, "energy": 19.2468, "activity_lines": [ 25.757333, 26.175091, 26.052857, 25.441161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.5, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2745.0, "trend": 25.077333, "fair_value": 21.371346, "relative_strength": -16.64275, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.616891, "energy": 12.729056, "activity_lines": [ 25.303333, 25.816727, 25.976667, 25.399742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.9, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 2505.0, "trend": 24.987667, "fair_value": 21.458782, "relative_strength": -17.364973, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.130283, "energy": 17.726623, "activity_lines": [ 25.085333, 25.579637, 25.928333, 25.388301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }