{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96d31f7f-6e29-4ddf-8b45-30973e862067", "symbol": "TOU", "name": "Tourmaline Oil Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.402, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.869, "architecture_energy": 24.175, "architecture_maturity": 23.793, "architecture_confidence": 90.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.13, "rotation_up": 28.16, "upward_expansion": 15.3, "deceleration": 42.26, "rotation_down": 36.49, "downward_expansion": 62.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.570668, 61.38447, 62.13067, 62.653735 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.150002, "trend_reference": 62.903825, "distance_from_trend": -0.059676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.732767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.601178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048929, "excess_performance": -0.16935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009756, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8349000, "relative_activity": 0.929249, "balance": 0.498062, "dry_up": 1.061641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047515, "annualized_volatility": 0.276965, "from_high_reference": -0.161825, "from_low_reference": 0.072368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.903825, "fair_value_reference": 59.732767, "structural_low": 58.027264, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013591, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.004985, "regime_survival": 0.294118, "best_return": 0.134055, "worst_return": -0.086103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011006, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023924, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.139568, "worst_return": -0.056887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062545, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027892, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.165689, "worst_return": -0.026638, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.816058, "energy": 7.120536, "activity_lines": [ 62.314002, 61.94779, 62.663695, 62.957659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.91, "volume": 10110100, "typical_volume": 10087980.0, "trend": 62.901703, "fair_value": 59.743756, "relative_strength": -8.061541, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.768277, "energy": 16.690375, "activity_lines": [ 62.460668, 61.873511, 62.517468, 62.89578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.150002, "volume": 8349000, "typical_volume": 8984675.0, "trend": 62.903825, "fair_value": 59.732767, "relative_strength": -14.601178, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.868513, "energy": 24.175399, "activity_lines": [ 61.570668, 61.38447, 62.13067, 62.653735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }