{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96d6aa1d-dca9-4d6e-9ac5-aba78b5ffbe2", "symbol": "QQA", "name": "Invesco QQQ Income Advantage ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.465, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.248, "architecture_energy": 22.012, "architecture_maturity": 55.649, "architecture_confidence": 80.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.43, "rotation_up": 29.08, "upward_expansion": 56.43, "deceleration": 88.01, "rotation_down": 31.11, "downward_expansion": 20.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.341211, 55.550122, 55.455309, 54.461937 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.63, "trend_reference": 53.251955, "distance_from_trend": 0.063435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.902428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.959321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114214, "excess_performance": -0.073239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114214, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399503, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 696845, "relative_activity": 1.146328, "balance": 1.399503, "dry_up": 1.028443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037896, "annualized_volatility": 0.155904, "from_high_reference": -0.021588, "from_low_reference": 0.223646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.251955, "fair_value_reference": 46.902428, "structural_low": 47.374314, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046185, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 39.916353, "volume": 623139, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 39.063206, "volume": 545846, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 38.078607, "volume": 542115, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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56.029063, 55.138573, 54.052652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.13, "volume": 681570, "typical_volume": 590820.0, "trend": 52.957781, "fair_value": 46.739078, "relative_strength": -3.184699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.838282, "energy": 19.2738, "activity_lines": [ 55.163987, 55.667356, 55.172881, 54.134364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.49, "volume": 593435, "typical_volume": 599494.95, "trend": 53.084843, "fair_value": 46.811517, "relative_strength": -2.979439, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.238929, "energy": 17.987304, "activity_lines": [ 54.869215, 55.398902, 55.223029, 54.233217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.63, "volume": 696845, "typical_volume": 607893.05, "trend": 53.251955, "fair_value": 46.902428, "relative_strength": -3.959321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.248448, "energy": 22.012489, "activity_lines": [ 55.341211, 55.550122, 55.455309, 54.461937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }