{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96d9e79b-8c1f-4048-bb86-048a72459a98", "symbol": "QQQG", "name": "PACER NASDAQ 100 TOP 50 CASH COWS GROWTH LEADERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.886, "architecture_energy": 23.578, "architecture_maturity": 69.346, "architecture_confidence": 92.021, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.19, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 57.16, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 28.53, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.293487, 30.702215, 30.152529, 28.772143 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.5899, "trend_reference": 27.087006, "distance_from_trend": 0.12932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.520682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.667773, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.303413, "excess_performance": 0.115959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046678, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031067, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.303413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.741573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 786798, "relative_activity": 8.540418, "balance": 2.741573, "dry_up": 2.652646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05905, "annualized_volatility": 0.242381, "from_high_reference": -0.085777, "from_low_reference": 0.417724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.087006, "fair_value_reference": 23.520682, "structural_low": 21.57676, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031703, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.8595, "volume": 35973, "typical_volume": 50863.05, "trend": 26.70464, "fair_value": 23.386633, "relative_strength": 8.182426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.213643, "energy": 36.62881, "activity_lines": [ 30.569927, 30.938857, 29.7667, 28.321914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.9904, "volume": 63108, "typical_volume": 53105.5, "trend": 26.897108, "fair_value": 23.451376, "relative_strength": 7.934787, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.211645, "energy": 28.503592, "activity_lines": [ 30.285327, 30.767101, 29.948231, 28.533898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.5899, "volume": 786798, "typical_volume": 92126.4, "trend": 27.087006, "fair_value": 23.520682, "relative_strength": 4.667773, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.886285, "energy": 23.57788, "activity_lines": [ 30.293487, 30.702215, 30.152529, 28.772143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }