{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96db4b50-5043-4492-bdf8-0d818db02aeb", "symbol": "WD", "name": "Walker & Dunlop Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.945, "architecture_energy": 46.229, "architecture_maturity": 33.014, "architecture_confidence": 67.068, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.05, "rotation_up": 9.88, "upward_expansion": 14.36, "deceleration": 47.77, "rotation_down": 71.86, "downward_expansion": 75.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.726667, 49.715091, 50.370832, 50.215881 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.43, "trend_reference": 51.523598, "distance_from_trend": -0.137677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.437263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.757123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.277112, "excess_performance": -0.402737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3006447, "relative_activity": 1.958626, "balance": 0.498335, "dry_up": 1.106049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103998, "annualized_volatility": 0.545589, "from_high_reference": -0.48662, "from_low_reference": 0.085318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.523598, "fair_value_reference": 76.437263, "structural_low": 40.937299, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.026353, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.014599, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15153, "worst_return": -0.172397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020051, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.184976, "worst_return": -0.26174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077951, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.132195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.480372, "worst_return": -0.341829, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -27.728675, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.550477, "energy": 23.391211, "activity_lines": [ 50.388667, 51.310364, 50.861902, 50.888373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.69, "volume": 1365606, "typical_volume": 1507442.8, "trend": 52.148676, "fair_value": 76.66347, "relative_strength": -25.525179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.200471, "energy": 23.412721, "activity_lines": [ 49.766667, 50.984727, 50.879409, 50.713861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.43, "volume": 3006447, "typical_volume": 1534977.9, "trend": 51.523598, "fair_value": 76.437263, "relative_strength": -34.757123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.945472, "energy": 46.229066, "activity_lines": [ 47.726667, 49.715091, 50.370832, 50.215881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }