{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96ddddfd-87f3-42db-9c28-02d440430cc0", "symbol": "XNAS", "name": "Xtrackers NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.717, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.606, "architecture_energy": 30.873, "architecture_maturity": 69.025, "architecture_confidence": 81.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 31.5, "upward_expansion": 62.33, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 30.86, "downward_expansion": 21.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.280666, 58.863636, 58.373904, 56.525839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 59.66, "trend_reference": 54.220833, "distance_from_trend": 0.100315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.134487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.36139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22179, "excess_performance": 0.050898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060126, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22179, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.221298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58701, "relative_activity": 1.447099, "balance": 1.221298, "dry_up": 1.677922, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033781, "annualized_volatility": 0.187571, "from_high_reference": -0.028971, "from_low_reference": 0.310921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.220833, "fair_value_reference": 44.134487, "structural_low": 46.639999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013823, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00839, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.090589, "worst_return": -0.112081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06387, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.033056, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.168858, "worst_return": -0.156948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1239, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.051555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210836, "worst_return": -0.06477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.468623, "energy": 64.850353, "activity_lines": [ 60.228666, 59.966727, 57.414738, 55.386473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.939999, "volume": 59606, "typical_volume": 34615.7, "trend": 53.455167, "fair_value": 43.635032, "relative_strength": -0.948763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.422002, "energy": 51.920051, "activity_lines": [ 59.479333, 59.674909, 57.709309, 55.692903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.75, "volume": 78749, "typical_volume": 37464.9, "trend": 53.7075, "fair_value": 43.795577, "relative_strength": -1.103183, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.50211, "energy": 41.105518, "activity_lines": [ 58.766, 59.335818, 57.942738, 55.969989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.599998, "volume": 75201, "typical_volume": 39302.25, "trend": 53.936833, "fair_value": 43.952885, "relative_strength": -3.668093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.077866, "energy": 27.822133, "activity_lines": [ 57.913333, 58.798181, 58.029571, 56.156602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.66, "volume": 58701, "typical_volume": 40564.6, "trend": 54.220833, "fair_value": 44.134487, "relative_strength": -1.36139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.605656, "energy": 30.87313, "activity_lines": [ 58.280666, 58.863636, 58.373904, 56.525839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }