{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96e1f96e-8d4a-400f-a592-5ea93e103528", "symbol": "DTIL", "name": "Dhunseri Tea & Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.036, "architecture_energy": 32.68, "architecture_maturity": 28.193, "architecture_confidence": 84.24, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.69, "rotation_up": 12.55, "upward_expansion": 13.73, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 54.6, "downward_expansion": 70.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.766001, 134.837454, 136.001094, 135.727139 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 132.910004, "trend_reference": 136.655999, "distance_from_trend": -0.027412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 196.39401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.698293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074894, "excess_performance": -0.031185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058871, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323248, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186609, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17192, "relative_activity": 0.843214, "balance": 0.186609, "dry_up": 1.159591, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07124, "annualized_volatility": 0.335098, "from_high_reference": -0.371435, "from_low_reference": 0.303039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.655999, "fair_value_reference": 196.39401, "structural_low": 102.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.031988, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020023, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155117, "worst_return": -0.134318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028922, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.208245, "worst_return": -0.27151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076066, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092063, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.218388, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022587, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": 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"energy": 10.525397, "activity_lines": [ 139.016667, 137.712726, 136.956047, 137.339806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 134.529999, "volume": 35696, "typical_volume": 22309.45, "trend": 139.407333, "fair_value": 197.801826, "relative_strength": -11.606149, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.203172, "energy": 9.641868, "activity_lines": [ 137.769333, 137.021817, 136.875523, 136.969354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.360001, "volume": 13161, "typical_volume": 22600.4, "trend": 138.461332, "fair_value": 197.316727, "relative_strength": -10.382407, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.885096, "energy": 14.623503, "activity_lines": [ 135.712667, 136.251454, 136.609618, 136.514687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.869995, "volume": 28521, "typical_volume": 21590.45, "trend": 137.525666, "fair_value": 196.834666, "relative_strength": -12.998845, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.762969, "energy": 25.405159, "activity_lines": [ 133.627999, 135.296181, 136.215856, 136.024924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.910004, "volume": 17192, "typical_volume": 20388.65, "trend": 136.655999, "fair_value": 196.39401, "relative_strength": -11.698293, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.036231, "energy": 32.679954, "activity_lines": [ 132.766001, 134.837454, 136.001094, 135.727139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }