{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96e57209-9a83-42aa-80a0-491a78b5f2a3", "symbol": "7522", "name": "Chinaamc Direxion NASDAQ--100 Daily (-2X) Inverse Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.776, "architecture_energy": 37.266, "architecture_maturity": 92.082, "architecture_confidence": 81.387, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.52, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 23.63, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 36.13, "downward_expansion": 64.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.758267, 3.715127, 3.788624, 4.081901 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.6, "trend_reference": 4.436333, "distance_from_trend": -0.188519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.881731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.913132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.367845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330855, "excess_performance": -0.297274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.913132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.376252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.430827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9682820, "relative_activity": 2.475761, "balance": 0.430827, "dry_up": 1.517715, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064402, "annualized_volatility": 0.340512, "from_high_reference": -0.407895, "from_low_reference": 6.185629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.436333, "fair_value_reference": 1.881731, "structural_low": 3.398, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.039289, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.017386, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 8.553073, "worst_return": -0.193206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.072674, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.084429, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 8.138577, "worst_return": -0.316025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.103632, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.12411, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 6.833066, "worst_return": -0.384064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031792, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176565, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.924047, "energy": 53.030615, "activity_lines": [ 3.6868, 3.644618, 3.918567, 4.224951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.87, "volume": 3452120, "typical_volume": 3493845.5, "trend": 4.517267, "fair_value": 1.851487, "relative_strength": 10.345967, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.036124, "energy": 46.998426, "activity_lines": [ 3.762533, 3.687927, 3.877581, 4.181019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.862, "volume": 7779260, "typical_volume": 3610367.0, "trend": 4.481067, "fair_value": 1.867628, "relative_strength": 4.415742, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.005889, "energy": 33.914524, "activity_lines": [ 3.810133, 3.727055, 3.841929, 4.138744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.6, "volume": 9682820, "typical_volume": 3911048.0, "trend": 4.436333, "fair_value": 1.881731, "relative_strength": -3.367845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.776163, "energy": 37.266231, "activity_lines": [ 3.758267, 3.715127, 3.788624, 4.081901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }