{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96e848e9-20f9-4820-a74b-52cc629eebd0", "symbol": "TRV", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.708, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.297, "architecture_energy": 38.872, "architecture_maturity": 27.292, "architecture_confidence": 67.796, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.68, "rotation_up": 45.78, "upward_expansion": 75.86, "deceleration": 62.0, "rotation_down": 24.23, "downward_expansion": 4.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.057, 27.035746, 26.606205, 26.306368 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.455, "trend_reference": 26.231967, "distance_from_trend": 0.046624, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.307667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.005395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.19415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018663, "excess_performance": -0.034649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.005395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023795, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018663, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.564598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10200, "relative_activity": 0.404657, "balance": 3.564598, "dry_up": 0.429799, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030668, "annualized_volatility": 0.202763, "from_high_reference": -0.055035, "from_low_reference": 0.185296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.231967, "fair_value_reference": 27.307667, "structural_low": 23.163, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.019583, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018081, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.019583, "worst_return": -0.019583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.786906, "energy": 25.959584, "activity_lines": [ 26.921667, 26.9142, 26.351209, 26.194363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.91, "volume": 11672, "typical_volume": 25399.3, "trend": 26.283767, "fair_value": 27.306327, "relative_strength": -3.954334, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.208822, "energy": 18.22783, "activity_lines": [ 26.893333, 26.937327, 26.457819, 26.230804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.455, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 25206.55, "trend": 26.231967, "fair_value": 27.307667, "relative_strength": -4.19415, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.297155, "energy": 38.871903, "activity_lines": [ 27.057, 27.035746, 26.606205, 26.306368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }