{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96eecce5-c85e-46c4-a5c5-974d820ba5b7", "symbol": "CHVX34", "name": "Chevron Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.257, "architecture_energy": 21.563, "architecture_maturity": 15.283, "architecture_confidence": 49.087, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.75, "rotation_up": 56.85, "upward_expansion": 39.33, "deceleration": 41.14, "rotation_down": 20.17, "downward_expansion": 19.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.121334, 94.231638, 93.794047, 94.579576 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 94.800003, "trend_reference": 94.602345, "distance_from_trend": 0.002089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.248227, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.966704, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034454, "excess_performance": 0.091503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052785, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029667, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149122, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.205839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12666, "relative_activity": 0.153014, "balance": 3.205839, "dry_up": 0.333572, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057378, "annualized_volatility": 0.315043, "from_high_reference": -0.150574, "from_low_reference": 0.228818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.602345, "fair_value_reference": 80.248227, "structural_low": 85.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.021212, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.736842, "median_excess_return": -0.007806, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.222809, "worst_return": -0.072866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.117133, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.038502, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.177509, "worst_return": -0.109703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.135075, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.026709, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.387278, "worst_return": -0.024829, "sufficient": 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30.086478, "activity_lines": [ 91.326002, 92.122571, 93.271942, 93.939146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.519997, "volume": 30825, "typical_volume": 95188.9, "trend": 93.778497, "fair_value": 79.885359, "relative_strength": 5.654965, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.039295, "energy": 7.69887, "activity_lines": [ 93.861334, 93.136001, 93.572798, 94.2797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.93, "volume": 11837, "typical_volume": 89702.55, "trend": 94.303434, "fair_value": 80.084121, "relative_strength": 2.915581, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.901686, "energy": 21.587015, "activity_lines": [ 95.837334, 93.979819, 93.817913, 94.547539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.800003, "volume": 12666, "typical_volume": 82776.85, "trend": 94.602345, "fair_value": 80.248227, "relative_strength": 2.966704, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.256715, "energy": 21.563159, "activity_lines": [ 96.121334, 94.231638, 93.794047, 94.579576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }