{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96f61256-9364-45d5-a61b-4289896d2bf7", "symbol": "APLAPOLLO", "name": "APL Apollo Tubes Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.543, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.051, "architecture_energy": 13.069, "architecture_maturity": 46.438, "architecture_confidence": 59.423, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.86, "rotation_up": 30.85, "upward_expansion": 21.19, "deceleration": 41.55, "rotation_down": 21.87, "downward_expansion": 57.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1868.206681, 1844.14001, 1860.227143, 1901.917416 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1970.0, "trend_reference": 1958.803324, "distance_from_trend": 0.005716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1662.953847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.02416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103731, "excess_performance": -0.060022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004947, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060242, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731271, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6647841, "relative_activity": 2.60231, "balance": 0.731271, "dry_up": 1.197392, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041519, "annualized_volatility": 0.28843, "from_high_reference": -0.143999, "from_low_reference": 0.262776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1958.803324, "fair_value_reference": 1662.953847, "structural_low": 1758.300049, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039043, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.028175, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.287743, "worst_return": -0.042348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.185361, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.16606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293065, "worst_return": 0.12747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043298, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.135831, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309506, "worst_return": -0.017863, 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1860.393332, 1910.080425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1819.5, "volume": 2329766, "typical_volume": 2386541.6, "trend": 1956.13999, "fair_value": 1660.171401, "relative_strength": -0.935375, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.551254, "energy": 36.825938, "activity_lines": [ 1815.646688, 1816.830919, 1852.872856, 1901.023222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1970.0, "volume": 6647841, "typical_volume": 2554592.75, "trend": 1958.803324, "fair_value": 1662.953847, "relative_strength": 6.02416, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.051326, "energy": 13.068798, "activity_lines": [ 1868.206681, 1844.14001, 1860.227143, 1901.917416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }