{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96fa2dea-43e8-4df8-a314-8a25f047206c", "symbol": "SRU-UN", "name": "SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.021, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.465, "architecture_energy": 24.999, "architecture_maturity": 58.92, "architecture_confidence": 76.406, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.42, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 60.44, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 24.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.404545, 29.699218, 29.346789, 28.800463 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.77, "trend_reference": 28.095802, "distance_from_trend": 0.023996, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.261376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.830125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081728, "excess_performance": -0.038693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023996, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026489, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081728, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1865700, "relative_activity": 1.590361, "balance": 0.780975, "dry_up": 1.225951, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025159, "annualized_volatility": 0.128332, "from_high_reference": -0.061047, "from_low_reference": 0.189875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.095802, "fair_value_reference": 23.261376, "structural_low": 25.936782, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0005, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.00515, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.076309, "worst_return": -0.05585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.055467, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047228, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.163704, "worst_return": -0.058662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047792, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121269, "worst_return": -0.090649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027279, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.750372, "energy": 84.868076, "activity_lines": [ 30.153003, 29.748123, 28.945801, 28.348662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.172945, "volume": 1066100, "typical_volume": 1196750.0, "trend": 27.693557, "fair_value": 23.086193, "relative_strength": 2.543019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.04949, "energy": 73.659049, "activity_lines": [ 30.158037, 29.902194, 29.129237, 28.520265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.576052, "volume": 1304100, "typical_volume": 1191625.0, "trend": 27.855089, "fair_value": 23.146538, "relative_strength": 0.313574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.741955, "energy": 59.479147, "activity_lines": [ 29.956435, 29.911268, 29.242211, 28.641716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.549999, "volume": 1516900, "typical_volume": 1192995.0, "trend": 28.004331, "fair_value": 23.206301, "relative_strength": 0.745996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.414473, "energy": 44.4251, "activity_lines": [ 29.782912, 29.883326, 29.339215, 28.751065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.77, "volume": 1865700, "typical_volume": 1173130.0, "trend": 28.095802, "fair_value": 23.261376, "relative_strength": -4.830125, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.465402, "energy": 24.9989, "activity_lines": [ 29.404545, 29.699218, 29.346789, 28.800463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }