{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96fa50b1-b58b-4ace-a11d-a48dcb2719ea", "symbol": "600979", "name": "Sichuan Guangan Aaa Public Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.603, "architecture_energy": 50.551, "architecture_maturity": 19.884, "architecture_confidence": 95.937, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.07, "rotation_up": 19.44, "upward_expansion": 8.46, "deceleration": 47.08, "rotation_down": 55.0, "downward_expansion": 79.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.917333, 3.995273, 4.322095, 4.499785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.99, "trend_reference": 4.649, "distance_from_trend": -0.141751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.251186, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.097724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115299, "excess_performance": -0.072096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141751, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034542, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095805, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138635362, "relative_activity": 0.496551, "balance": 0.442121, "dry_up": 0.561851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110468, "annualized_volatility": 0.550236, "from_high_reference": -0.337209, "from_low_reference": 0.111421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.649, "fair_value_reference": 4.251186, "structural_low": 3.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028075, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009443, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.19322, "worst_return": -0.044681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071584, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.055223, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.783051, "worst_return": -0.078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.097844, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.107443, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.230508, "worst_return": -0.074297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.164054, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.21419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.038652, "worst_return": 0.070269, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.33711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213768, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"typical_volume": 331811641.8, "trend": 4.680667, "fair_value": 4.244204, "relative_strength": -17.727516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.251548, "energy": 78.062893, "activity_lines": [ 3.869333, 4.131636, 4.451095, 4.590946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.94, "volume": 121657504, "typical_volume": 303012664.8, "trend": 4.662333, "fair_value": 4.247316, "relative_strength": -14.341136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.861308, "energy": 69.179187, "activity_lines": [ 3.886, 4.052545, 4.380667, 4.543161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.99, "volume": 138635362, "typical_volume": 279196647.85, "trend": 4.649, "fair_value": 4.251186, "relative_strength": -15.097724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.602511, "energy": 50.551044, "activity_lines": [ 3.917333, 3.995273, 4.322095, 4.499785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }