{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96fea8d6-8ecb-4c10-8199-91312c8a0609", "symbol": "ESDD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD C/D", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.252, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.853, "architecture_energy": 61.515, "architecture_maturity": 66.829, "architecture_confidence": 67.528, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 53.28, "upward_expansion": 80.54, "deceleration": 70.08, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 9.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.38418, 27.246763, 26.99442, 26.460208 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.116199, "trend_reference": 25.853101, "distance_from_trend": 0.087537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.199422, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.575107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128937, "excess_performance": 0.075625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004694, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045751, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128937, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63651, "relative_activity": 0.89948, "balance": 0.819818, "dry_up": 2.044229, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018785, "annualized_volatility": 0.132047, "from_high_reference": -0.011417, "from_low_reference": 0.226995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.853101, "fair_value_reference": 21.199422, "structural_low": 23.078603, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.016956, "positive_rate": 0.74359, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": 0.004135, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.063426, "worst_return": -0.085808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.051756, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.042655, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.127541, "worst_return": -0.064925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.094063, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.061342, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.174083, "worst_return": -0.158198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 26.9904, "volume": 46210, "typical_volume": 69656.65, "trend": 25.6793, "fair_value": 21.049799, "relative_strength": 4.79098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.557752, "energy": 56.478412, "activity_lines": [ 27.105047, 27.101785, 26.736939, 26.22857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.906, "volume": 26785, "typical_volume": 69240.5, "trend": 25.752506, "fair_value": 21.119943, "relative_strength": 2.655777, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.5101, "energy": 44.981787, "activity_lines": [ 27.04932, 27.062222, 26.8149, 26.307712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.116199, "volume": 63651, "typical_volume": 70764.2, "trend": 25.853101, "fair_value": 21.199422, "relative_strength": 4.575107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.852868, "energy": 61.514765, "activity_lines": [ 27.38418, 27.246763, 26.99442, 26.460208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }