{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97005f61-f91d-41f4-994a-27e39b0fd0bb", "symbol": "SJPA", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.115, "architecture_energy": 27.42, "architecture_maturity": 59.993, "architecture_confidence": 87.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 32.25, "upward_expansion": 58.08, "deceleration": 88.23, "rotation_down": 29.59, "downward_expansion": 21.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 5995.866667, 6011.109091, 5944.57619, 5854.322581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6170.0, "trend_reference": 5743.9, "distance_from_trend": 0.074183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4650.750513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326668, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.913664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104745, "excess_performance": 0.05351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074183, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039137, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104745, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119728, "relative_activity": 1.112905, "balance": 0.918395, "dry_up": 1.158774, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031408, "annualized_volatility": 0.211858, "from_high_reference": -0.088233, "from_low_reference": 0.287025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5743.9, "fair_value_reference": 4650.750513, "structural_low": 5162.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015917, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.007925, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.092638, "worst_return": -0.08532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005311, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017517, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.150426, "worst_return": -0.02386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053273, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001221, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.146039, "worst_return": -0.09597, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029539, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128742, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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104052, "typical_volume": 108966.05, "trend": 5692.266667, "fair_value": 4622.032565, "relative_strength": 1.79891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.708861, "energy": 28.082202, "activity_lines": [ 5957.066667, 5991.818182, 5896.128571, 5811.344086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5906.0, "volume": 145820, "typical_volume": 108718.2, "trend": 5717.566667, "fair_value": 4635.494103, "relative_strength": -0.09708, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.67748, "energy": 21.433687, "activity_lines": [ 5926.666667, 5977.927273, 5908.938095, 5825.133333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6170.0, "volume": 119728, "typical_volume": 107581.55, "trend": 5743.9, "fair_value": 4650.750513, "relative_strength": 3.913664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.114567, "energy": 27.419507, "activity_lines": [ 5995.866667, 6011.109091, 5944.57619, 5854.322581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }