{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97066141-a8f9-4eb0-b722-70fdff606024", "symbol": "KSM-F117", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) S&P SmallCap 600 Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.194, "architecture_energy": 63.335, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.158, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.37, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.8, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.48, 149.770909, 3082.178095, 5620.747097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 152.0, "trend_reference": 8554.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.982232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10968.666667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.674749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98864, "excess_performance": -1.01754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325117, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986142, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.218186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.865355, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1426, "relative_activity": 0.528001, "balance": 0.660236, "dry_up": 0.467185, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.208401, "annualized_volatility": 6.333479, "from_high_reference": -0.989488, "from_low_reference": 0.074205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8554.666667, "fair_value_reference": 10968.666667, "structural_low": 141.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028309, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.009132, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.114268, "worst_return": -0.113576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047141, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.006849, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.16066, "worst_return": -0.073029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033986, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.012875, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.114398, "worst_return": -0.13361, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 147.9, "volume": 5278, "typical_volume": 2813.0, "trend": 10233.273333, "fair_value": 11243.270513, "relative_strength": -98.803315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.345978, "energy": 85.053704, "activity_lines": [ 148.96, 1648.943636, 5998.399524, 8060.42129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 150.2, "volume": 2728, "typical_volume": 2799.9, "trend": 9813.28, "fair_value": 11177.246154, "relative_strength": -98.779964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.957522, "energy": 67.996752, "activity_lines": [ 149.606667, 893.376364, 5175.331905, 7409.90043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.5, "volume": 511, "typical_volume": 2759.25, "trend": 9392.596667, "fair_value": 11108.460897, "relative_strength": -98.78747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.875071, "energy": 67.788685, "activity_lines": [ 149.666667, 395.86, 4415.910952, 6786.430753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.1, "volume": 382, "typical_volume": 2633.25, "trend": 8977.6, "fair_value": 11038.461538, "relative_strength": -98.720019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.414802, "energy": 63.871155, "activity_lines": [ 149.753333, 149.007273, 3719.311429, 6190.140645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.0, "volume": 1426, "typical_volume": 2700.75, "trend": 8554.666667, "fair_value": 10968.666667, "relative_strength": -98.674749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.193864, "energy": 63.334961, "activity_lines": [ 150.48, 149.770909, 3082.178095, 5620.747097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }