{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9707df2f-6c67-4a69-baac-bc5c0527892f", "symbol": "FTHY", "name": "First Trust High Yield Opportunities 2027 Term Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.163, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.149, "architecture_energy": 33.64, "architecture_maturity": 32.99, "architecture_confidence": 76.12, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.04, "rotation_up": 50.39, "upward_expansion": 77.75, "deceleration": 53.73, "rotation_down": 18.58, "downward_expansion": 4.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.491178, 13.46766, 13.413731, 13.377484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.54, "trend_reference": 13.374456, "distance_from_trend": 0.012378, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.297077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.733294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00247, "excess_performance": -0.128095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012378, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003468, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017335, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00247, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 494240, "relative_activity": 1.085499, "balance": 1.232652, "dry_up": 0.955326, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018352, "annualized_volatility": 0.084703, "from_high_reference": -0.012916, "from_low_reference": 0.054424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.374456, "fair_value_reference": 12.297077, "structural_low": 12.84113, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00625, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.006107, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.070229, "worst_return": -0.080425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000947, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036053, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.105111, "worst_return": -0.11674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007186, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020327, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.094682, "worst_return": -0.241788, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 12.232349, "relative_strength": -7.529837, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.042801, "energy": 30.617428, "activity_lines": [ 13.45862, 13.421735, 13.361761, 13.353593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.436051, "volume": 347605, "typical_volume": 490509.85, "trend": 13.369245, "fair_value": 12.253555, "relative_strength": -6.923377, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.004377, "energy": 18.624197, "activity_lines": [ 13.449299, 13.430729, 13.374846, 13.357978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.505411, "volume": 404488, "typical_volume": 465467.45, "trend": 13.373822, "fair_value": 12.275441, "relative_strength": -7.137124, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.288993, "energy": 18.882277, "activity_lines": [ 13.463134, 13.447435, 13.393738, 13.366762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.54, "volume": 494240, "typical_volume": 455311.25, "trend": 13.374456, "fair_value": 12.297077, "relative_strength": -9.733294, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.148637, "energy": 33.639544, "activity_lines": [ 13.491178, 13.46766, 13.413731, 13.377484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }