{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "970dc0f6-26a0-47ae-bd95-0e96695430ef",
    "symbol": "EQTL3",
    "name": "Equatorial S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 72.606,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -64.388,
    "architecture_energy": 46.529,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.88,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.4,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.0,
        "rotation_up": 19.12,
        "upward_expansion": 9.84,
        "deceleration": 40.63,
        "rotation_down": 55.2,
        "downward_expansion": 78.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        38.398,
        38.785818,
        39.325523,
        39.816193
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 37.279999,
    "trend_reference": 40.237666,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.073505,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.333087,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118408,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.066344,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.088286,
    "excess_performance": -0.031237,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073505,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000307,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.118408,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.182108,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070663,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.031355,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088286,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.643384,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 27631500,
      "relative_activity": 0.937357,
      "balance": 0.643384,
      "dry_up": 0.991086,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.054494,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.274256,
      "from_high_reference": -0.195164,
      "from_low_reference": 0.122808
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.237666,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.333087,
      "structural_low": 36.389999,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.004934,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.026865,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.102911,
        "worst_return": -0.042779,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.160055,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.081422,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.240834,
        "worst_return": -0.043215,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.164158,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.06833,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.247295,
        "worst_return": 0.067111,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.325818,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.103419,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.488995,
        "worst_return": 0.265603,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.073202,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.132156,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.071856,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034848,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.014416,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.121105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.092682,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.05694,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023361,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003598,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 34985770.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "relative_strength": -10.109214,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 38.549999,
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        "typical_volume": 37868980.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 40.267007,
        "fair_value": 32.827274,
        "relative_strength": -2.731906,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.519894,
        "energy": 32.872645,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 34988800.0,
        "trend": 40.24856,
        "fair_value": 32.893939,
        "relative_strength": -4.061852,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.767187,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": -6.687825,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.937514,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 33.00944,
        "relative_strength": -2.471859,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.173775,
        "energy": 26.234558,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.292114
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 39.439999,
        "volume": 4509600,
        "typical_volume": 30529415.0,
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        "fair_value": 33.067079,
        "relative_strength": -3.628293,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": -15.005746,
        "energy": 18.428038,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 40.91,
        "volume": 31927200,
        "typical_volume": 30914855.0,
        "trend": 40.249423,
        "fair_value": 33.134792,
        "relative_strength": -1.964113,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 0.272957,
        "energy": 6.265232,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.628666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 39.5,
        "volume": 36276400,
        "typical_volume": 30939745.0,
        "trend": 40.280223,
        "fair_value": 33.186067,
        "relative_strength": -2.93206,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -29.678947,
        "energy": 20.059689,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.734,
          39.242363,
          39.956047,
          40.240122
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 38.34,
        "volume": 27717200,
        "typical_volume": 30578075.0,
        "trend": 40.279333,
        "fair_value": 33.231209,
        "relative_strength": -5.781892,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.821718,
        "energy": 20.800494,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.404,
          39.138,
          39.760476,
          40.114946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 38.66,
        "volume": 25236300,
        "typical_volume": 30098225.0,
        "trend": 40.291333,
        "fair_value": 33.28592,
        "relative_strength": -6.866889,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.614798,
        "energy": 22.703823,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.094667,
          39.096363,
          39.605524,
          40.010473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.279999,
        "volume": 27631500,
        "typical_volume": 29478110.0,
        "trend": 40.237666,
        "fair_value": 33.333087,
        "relative_strength": -7.066344,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.387707,
        "energy": 46.528575,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.398,
          38.785818,
          39.325523,
          39.816193
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}