{ "ticker": { "uuid": "971103e6-3f0f-4898-8a18-c312ed05e5fb", "symbol": "AMDL", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMD DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.706, "architecture_energy": 20.01, "architecture_maturity": 76.554, "architecture_confidence": 93.635, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.71, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 54.72, "deceleration": 91.06, "rotation_down": 29.86, "downward_expansion": 18.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.739333, 60.925818, 58.026476, 49.138624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.29, "trend_reference": 38.006, "distance_from_trend": 0.375835, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.181544, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.875993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 70.228702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.867604, "excess_performance": 2.68015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.375835, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.679229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.875993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.370364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.702287, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.483316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.867604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26743527, "relative_activity": 0.705291, "balance": 1.127804, "dry_up": 0.483501, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.363015, "annualized_volatility": 1.231647, "from_high_reference": -0.37594, "from_low_reference": 4.891831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.006, "fair_value_reference": 18.181544, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030562, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.058601, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.32004, "worst_return": -0.337297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.166926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.191404, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.562313, "worst_return": -0.228462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.205384, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.259022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205384, "worst_return": 0.205384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.704885, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.250611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.615219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010825, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-22", "close": 22.023, "volume": 247950, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-29", "close": 22.15, "volume": 334250, "typical_volume": 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66.380545, 53.383476, 43.502968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.14, "volume": 14515585, "typical_volume": 42617209.05, "trend": 33.954, "fair_value": 17.251664, "relative_strength": 113.991836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.50944, "energy": 40.780603, "activity_lines": [ 65.97, 65.458182, 55.034905, 45.155032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.97, "volume": 14217719, "typical_volume": 40488033.0, "trend": 35.564, "fair_value": 17.631488, "relative_strength": 130.956922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.992559, "energy": 32.763186, "activity_lines": [ 64.868667, 65.552182, 57.023095, 47.091548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.73, "volume": 17857618, "typical_volume": 38884060.0, "trend": 36.726333, "fair_value": 17.906476, "relative_strength": 81.170067, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.464651, "energy": 23.438285, "activity_lines": [ 60.210667, 63.132182, 57.594476, 48.134516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.29, "volume": 26743527, "typical_volume": 37918452.65, "trend": 38.006, "fair_value": 18.181544, "relative_strength": 70.228702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.705758, "energy": 20.009646, "activity_lines": [ 56.739333, 60.925818, 58.026476, 49.138624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }