{ "ticker": { "uuid": "972775fd-9d9d-45fe-95e9-5f9f544f5deb", "symbol": "BUYB", "name": "Invesco Global Buyback Achievers UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.497, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.515, "architecture_energy": 94.936, "architecture_maturity": 38.769, "architecture_confidence": 63.615, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 88.81, "upward_expansion": 99.25, "deceleration": 39.36, "rotation_down": 8.68, "downward_expansion": 21.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.833331, 64.916334, 63.566641, 62.697807 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 66.919998, "trend_reference": 61.699713, "distance_from_trend": 0.084608, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.101355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.29928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114896, "excess_performance": -0.055995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03704, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.996595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4230, "relative_activity": 2.335468, "balance": 2.996595, "dry_up": 2.438991, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014614, "annualized_volatility": 0.069429, "from_high_reference": -0.004759, "from_low_reference": 0.249499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.699713, "fair_value_reference": 51.101355, "structural_low": 57.919998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.009565, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.003123, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.072678, "worst_return": -0.061683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014598, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.02381, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.108775, "worst_return": -0.06013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055973, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010796, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.166395, "worst_return": -0.095746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.649245, "energy": 93.22676, "activity_lines": [ 63.624001, 62.907497, 62.048515, 61.515371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.959999, "volume": 267, "typical_volume": 1617.1, "trend": 61.007907, "fair_value": 50.598878, "relative_strength": -2.999151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.22618, "energy": 94.947972, "activity_lines": [ 64.192, 63.381679, 62.390746, 61.784717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.989998, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 1120.75, "trend": 61.230023, "fair_value": 50.758601, "relative_strength": -2.734781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.046362, "energy": 92.500758, "activity_lines": [ 64.580666, 63.797861, 62.715749, 62.041626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.949997, "volume": 13158, "typical_volume": 1674.6, "trend": 61.469165, "fair_value": 50.928468, "relative_strength": -1.933962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.902222, "energy": 92.414963, "activity_lines": [ 65.133332, 64.310231, 63.10991, 62.346141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.919998, "volume": 4230, "typical_volume": 1811.2, "trend": 61.699713, "fair_value": 51.101355, "relative_strength": -3.29928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.514597, "energy": 94.936129, "activity_lines": [ 65.833331, 64.916334, 63.566641, 62.697807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }