{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97348a70-7a22-4a17-9e88-dfbad0076551", "symbol": "002069", "name": "Zoneco Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.149, "architecture_energy": 37.279, "architecture_maturity": 93.576, "architecture_confidence": 62.419, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.74, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 17.33, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 38.16, "downward_expansion": 64.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.144667, 3.126909, 3.278952, 3.408925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.22, "trend_reference": 3.570667, "distance_from_trend": -0.098208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.668462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.281586, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170103, "excess_performance": -0.177503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122248, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771275, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52977300, "relative_activity": 1.192135, "balance": 0.771275, "dry_up": 1.267043, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069995, "annualized_volatility": 0.260666, "from_high_reference": -0.384321, "from_low_reference": 0.098976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.570667, "fair_value_reference": 3.668462, "structural_low": 2.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005298, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.006388, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.175258, "worst_return": -0.15142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024129, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.016072, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.313008, "worst_return": -0.243077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.161585, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.192294, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.479675, "worst_return": -0.179221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100817, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051044, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050761, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130526, 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"activity_lines": [ 3.09, 3.212, 3.418714, 3.535785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.16, "volume": 62054100, "typical_volume": 52065634.15, "trend": 3.638333, "fair_value": 3.695, "relative_strength": -18.909797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.714523, "energy": 71.223013, "activity_lines": [ 3.106667, 3.177818, 3.380286, 3.503441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 63988409, "typical_volume": 51250530.95, "trend": 3.609, "fair_value": 3.685769, "relative_strength": -23.105119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.08798, "energy": 59.611126, "activity_lines": [ 3.070667, 3.124, 3.328667, 3.460968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.17, "volume": 46204632, "typical_volume": 50390568.3, "trend": 3.587667, "fair_value": 3.677692, "relative_strength": -16.149382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.48105, "energy": 48.258757, "activity_lines": [ 3.106, 3.117091, 3.299905, 3.432645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.22, "volume": 52977300, "typical_volume": 44439001.05, "trend": 3.570667, "fair_value": 3.668462, "relative_strength": -18.281586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.148991, "energy": 37.278552, "activity_lines": [ 3.144667, 3.126909, 3.278952, 3.408925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }