{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97389978-3e27-4a63-b239-a4ab1dd02396", "symbol": "ICDSLTD", "name": "ICDS Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.893, "architecture_energy": 35.08, "architecture_maturity": 11.047, "architecture_confidence": 90.768, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.25, "rotation_up": 19.14, "upward_expansion": 3.97, "deceleration": 51.44, "rotation_down": 49.48, "downward_expansion": 74.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.859333, 41.095273, 42.462048, 42.973656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.02, "trend_reference": 43.29, "distance_from_trend": -0.029337, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.740321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.03933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.20115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060165, "excess_performance": -0.016456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029337, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.03933, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10804, "relative_activity": 3.83692, "balance": 0.700924, "dry_up": 1.941988, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069216, "annualized_volatility": 0.669379, "from_high_reference": -0.325738, "from_low_reference": 0.154396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.29, "fair_value_reference": 43.740321, "structural_low": 36.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005041, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.012977, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.592141, "worst_return": -0.156371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124736, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.027399, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.150598, "worst_return": -0.155357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.084481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3472, "worst_return": -0.05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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39.790001, "volume": 2027, "typical_volume": 18430.6, "trend": 43.497667, "fair_value": 43.4375, "relative_strength": -10.737408, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.588346, "energy": 69.849084, "activity_lines": [ 40.556667, 41.803637, 43.254667, 43.440237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.48, "volume": 2573, "typical_volume": 17846.65, "trend": 43.392667, "fair_value": 43.536731, "relative_strength": -6.833148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.430872, "energy": 67.705631, "activity_lines": [ 40.342, 41.388364, 42.928857, 43.245548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.389999, "volume": 6469, "typical_volume": 11431.4, "trend": 43.231667, "fair_value": 43.635705, "relative_strength": -9.32138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.065003, "energy": 61.328867, "activity_lines": [ 40.264666, 41.052727, 42.584381, 43.051828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.02, "volume": 10804, "typical_volume": 2815.8, "trend": 43.29, "fair_value": 43.740321, "relative_strength": -6.20115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.892612, "energy": 35.080201, "activity_lines": [ 40.859333, 41.095273, 42.462048, 42.973656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }