{ "ticker": { "uuid": "973fa19f-9e97-4ccb-b062-aee5c040ceb5", "symbol": "YCPS", "name": "Castellana Properties Socimi, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.373, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -32.315, "architecture_energy": 50.375, "architecture_maturity": 32.837, "architecture_confidence": 87.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.51, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 49.91, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 52.46, "downward_expansion": 39.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.6, 9.663636, 9.712619, 9.653656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.5, "trend_reference": 9.401667, "distance_from_trend": 0.010459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.771632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.402911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.72757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130952, "excess_performance": 0.006522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010459, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.402911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1240, "relative_activity": 3.391685, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.208698, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005668, "annualized_volatility": 0.125321, "from_high_reference": -0.035533, "from_low_reference": 0.348945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.401667, "fair_value_reference": 6.771632, "structural_low": 8.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.015384, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015384, "worst_return": 0.015384, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.034903, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034903, "worst_return": 0.034903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.046229, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046229, "worst_return": 0.046229, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.097217, "positive_rate": 1.0, 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"2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.17707, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.880914, "energy": 60.322997, "activity_lines": [ 9.75, 9.762727, 9.755952, 9.551505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 398.95, "trend": 9.178333, "fair_value": 6.692421, "relative_strength": 2.619178, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.965265, "energy": 45.168983, "activity_lines": [ 9.71, 9.74, 9.750714, 9.586882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.65, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 392.45, "trend": 9.255, "fair_value": 6.719145, "relative_strength": 0.682385, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.359079, "energy": 32.498479, "activity_lines": [ 9.68, 9.720909, 9.74381, 9.617312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.65, "volume": 1570, "typical_volume": 367.65, "trend": 9.331667, "fair_value": 6.745869, "relative_strength": -0.28071, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.237805, "energy": 40.101746, "activity_lines": [ 9.66, 9.705455, 9.735476, 9.642796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5, "volume": 1240, "typical_volume": 365.6, "trend": 9.401667, "fair_value": 6.771632, "relative_strength": -3.72757, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -32.315468, "energy": 50.374682, "activity_lines": [ 9.6, 9.663636, 9.712619, 9.653656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }